The short version
- HYPE unlock: 9.92 million HYPE, about $765 million, vests for Hyperliquid’s core contributors on November 6, 4.5% of the coins in circulation.
- Buybacks run at about 20,700 HYPE ($1.67 million) a day, enough for a typical team payout in under a month but 479 days’ worth for the full slice.
- The crew is watching how much the team unstakes around October 30, whether it goes OTC again like October’s 3.75 million, and the $76 support.
The next HYPE unlock lands on November 6, and the headline number looks heavy. Vesting trackers show 9.92 million HYPE for Hyperliquid’s core contributors, about $765 million at today’s price and 4.5% of the coins in circulation.
HYPE trades at $77.10 at the time of writing, down 1.2% in 24 hours and 21% below its $97.96 top from September 23. Hyperliquid buys its own token back every single day with trading fees. So can those buybacks soak up a team payout this size? On paper, not even close. In practice, the team has never taken the full amount.
One trader put the last 30 days side by side, and the gap is hard to miss:
$HYPE Unlocked 5x More Than It Bought Back.
I checked the last 30 days, and the numbers are pretty wild.
> Assistance Fund bought ~769K $HYPE ($66M)
> Team released 3.75M HYPE from staking
> Almost 5x the buyback amount
But here's what happened to those 3.75M tokens.
The team
How Big Is the November 6 HYPE Unlock?
On paper, 9,916,667 HYPE, the monthly team slice Tokenomist lists for that date. Core contributors hold 23.8% of the 1 billion supply, and their tokens have been vesting monthly since the one-year cliff ended in late 2025.
What the team actually takes out is a different story. Hyperliquid Labs moves its payout out of staking each month, and that number has usually been tiny. Before October, monthly distributions ran between 140,000 and 534,000 HYPE, a few percent of the paper figure.
October broke the pattern. The team unstaked 3.75 million HYPE, about 38% of the nominal slice, and co-founder iliensinc said on Discord that the whole batch was sold over the counter (OTC) to one institution, so it never hit the order book. Five buyer wallets received 375,000 HYPE each on October 7. The buyer, the price and any lock-up were never disclosed.
DISCOVER: Token unlock in the Base Camp glossary
Can Hyperliquid’s Buybacks Absorb It?
Hyperliquid buybacks can absorb a normal month of team payouts. A full slice is another matter. Hyperliquid sends most of its trading fees to the Assistance Fund, a system address that buys HYPE on the open market and holds it. The fund’s wallet now holds 48.23 million HYPE, bought for $1.38 billion in total.
We pulled its fills from Hyperliquid’s own data. Over the last 14 full days, the fund bought 289,719 HYPE for $23.4 million. That’s about 20,700 HYPE, or $1.67 million, a day. Here’s how long that pace takes to cover each version of a team payout:
| Team payout | HYPE | Days of buybacks |
|---|---|---|
| A typical month before October | 140,000 to 534,000 | 7 to 26 |
| October’s OTC batch | 3.75 million | 181 |
| The full November 6 slice | 9.92 million | 479 |
So the honest answer depends on what the team does. A payout in the old range is gone inside a month of buying. Another 3.75 million batch would be six months of buybacks, which is why it matters so much that October went OTC instead of onto the order book. The full 9.92 million would be more than a year and three months of buying.
There’s one more source of demand. Since October, the fund also gets most of the yield on the USDC sitting on Hyperliquid, and the first payment of $14.58 million landed in early October. If it runs on the same roughly 30-day cycle, the next one arrives around the unlock.
HYPE Price Analysis: Can $76 Hold Into the Unlock?
So far, yes. The HYPE price has bounced off $76.10 on every dip since October 18. But the October payout is a warning: even with the tokens going OTC, HYPE fell 10.6% in the three days around it, from $94.16 to $84.19. Price has since lost the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a trend line that weights recent prices more, which now sits at $82.01. The 200-day EMA is far lower at $67.32.
- In the bull case, a small or OTC payout and a daily close above $82, the 50-day EMA, would show the unlock was priced in.
- In the base case, HYPE ranges between $76 and $82 until the team’s unstaking shows up on-chain, about a week before November 6.
- In the bear case, a large unstake headed for the open market breaks $76 and opens $74.50, the September 17 low, then the 200-day EMA near $67.
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EXPLORE: Market Cap, Supply and Why “Cheap” Coins Aren’t Cheap
Hyperliquid stakes take seven days to unlock, so the team’s move should show up around October 30. That is the tell. Until then, $76 is the line, and the paper number of the HYPE unlock is the worst case.
On the climb since 2017. Trades futures and reads onchain data. Automates the boring parts.
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