Tesla SpaceX Merger Would Combine 30,221 Bitcoin

The short version

Tesla SpaceX merger talks are on: both boards formed special committees, and together the two hold 30,221 BTC, about $2.5 billion.
Neither company sold a coin in Q3, and Tesla’s $288 million bitcoin gain made up about 37% of its quarterly profit.
The crew is watching whether the committees agree terms before Tesla’s December 3 meeting, and whether BTC can close above $84,800.

The Tesla SpaceX merger went from internet rumor to boardroom agenda this week, and the bitcoin comes along for the ride. On SpaceX’s earnings call on Tuesday, Elon Musk said both companies have set up special committees to discuss combining. Between them they hold 30,221 BTC, worth about $2.5 billion with Bitcoin at $82,798 at the time of writing.

Tesla’s own results landed on Wednesday after the close. They confirmed what SpaceX’s numbers showed a day earlier: neither company sold a single coin in the third quarter. So what would one Musk company with 30,221 BTC actually mean for Bitcoin?

CoinDesk had the first take on the bitcoin side of the story:

What Did Musk Actually Say About a Tesla SpaceX Merger?

Talks have started, and that’s all so far. Musk told analysts the committees are made up of independent directors, were formed at the request of shareholders, and that he can’t sit in on them because he is a conflicted party.

He also tried to cool things down. “I think some people out there assume that a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty, and I think that would be overstating it,” Musk said. Then, a moment later: “Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes.”

The hurdle is real. On the Tesla side, a deal needs the backing of 50% of all outstanding shares, which counts every holder who stays home too. Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote on October 14 that a deal could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting on December 3, with SpaceX buying Tesla in an all-stock deal. That’s one bank’s forecast; neither company has filed anything.

Traders liked it anyway. SpaceX shares closed up about 7.9% on Wednesday and Tesla rose 3.4% to $386, before slipping 2.2% after hours on the earnings report.

How Much Bitcoin Do Tesla and SpaceX Hold?

SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC and Tesla holds 11,509 BTC. The SpaceX bitcoin was bought for $661 million, according to its June quarterly filing, and it was worth $1.573 billion on September 30.

The Tesla bitcoin stack was worth $962 million at the end of September, up from $674 million three months earlier, BitcoinTreasuries noted. Neither company shows any bitcoin bought or sold in its cash flows.

Here’s the number nobody ran. Tesla booked a $288 million unrealized gain on its bitcoin in Q3, Electrek reported, on GAAP net income of $787 million. In other words, about 37% of Tesla’s quarterly profit came from Bitcoin going up while the car business ground through a flat quarter. Not bad for a stack Tesla mostly sold in 2022.

DISCOVER: Market Cap, Supply and Why “Cheap” Coins Aren’t Cheap

What Would a Tesla SpaceX Merger Mean for Bitcoin?

On its own, very little new demand. A Tesla SpaceX merger moves the same 30,221 BTC onto one balance sheet; nobody has to buy a coin for that to happen. That’s about 0.15% of the 20.1 million BTC in circulation.

The combined holder would rank sixth among public companies on the BitcoinTreasuries list, behind MARA’s 35,577 BTC and ahead of Bullish at 22,000. For context, Strategy holds 848,517 BTC, about 28 times more.

What would matter is a change of policy. A merged company with more cash and Musk’s attention could add to the pile, or treat it as spare change next to its AI and rocket budgets. Nobody on either call said a word about buying more, so for now the honest read is “holder, not buyer.”

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Get Past $84,800?

Not on its latest try. Bitcoin hit $84,808 over the last 24 hours and was pushed back to $82,798, up just 0.12% on the day.

The trend is still up. BTC trades above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a trend line that weights recent prices more, at $80,894, and well above the 200-day EMA at $76,187.

In the bull case, a daily close above $84,800 would put $87,220, the ceiling that capped September and early October, back in view.
In the base case, Bitcoin chops between $80,394 and $84,800 while the merger stays in committee.
In the bear case, a daily close below $80,394 would open the way to the 200-day EMA.

EXPLORE: Trendlines, Ranges and Breakouts: Drawing Them Right and Trading Them Better

The next real signal won’t come from a stock chart. It comes when the committees put terms on paper, or when Tesla’s December 3 meeting shows up without a merger vote on the agenda.

Written by

VikingXBT

On the climb since 2017. Trades futures and reads onchain data. Automates the boring parts.