The short version
- Monero price holds near $601, up 8% since October 16 and 39% since January 1, while Bitcoin slid from $84,000 to under $80,000.
- FinCEN dropped its crypto mixing proposal on October 5, and Kraken withdrew its emails to XMR buyers on October 24, though its $1,500 monthly withdrawal cap stays.
- The crew is watching $621, XMR’s highest daily close since January, and $583 as the floor of the October 18 range.
The Monero price is doing something most of the market can’t right now: sitting still. The XMR price is $601 on Kraken at the time of writing, 8% above its October 16 close of $557, while Bitcoin slipped from $84,000 to under $80,000 in the same stretch.
Zoom out and the gap gets wider. Monero is up 39% since January 1. Bitcoin is down 9%. So what is holding XMR up, and how long can a coin Binance won’t even list keep it going?
The week’s biggest Monero headline came from Kraken’s co-CEO, who walked back a set of emails to XMR buyers:
the monero:native emails were us. they were wrong. here is what happened and what changed.
what happened
– clients who bought xmr with their own money and withdrew it got an email asking for employer, source of funds and what they planned to do with their coins
– no rule
Why Is the Monero Price Holding Up?
Two US-side worries faded in October, and a thin market does the rest.
First, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) withdrew its 2023 proposal to treat crypto mixing as a “primary money laundering concern” on October 5. The rule never passed, but it hung over every privacy tool for three years.
Second, Kraken backed down. Clients who bought XMR and withdrew it had been emailed questions about their employer, their source of funds and what they planned to do with the coins. On October 24 co-CEO Arjun Sethi wrote that “no rule required it” and that the requests were withdrawn. “Where your money came from is a fair question. What you do with it after it leaves is not,” he added, and confirmed XMR stays listed.
The limits stay, though. Kraken’s rolling 30-day caps of $3,500 in XMR deposits and $1,500 in withdrawals for individuals, in force since August 15, haven’t changed.
That points to the third reason: XMR has no Binance market. Most of its trading happens on smaller venues, so it trades on its own news more than on Bitcoin’s mood, and a modest wave of buying moves the price.
The network keeps growing underneath. Monero’s hash rate, worked out from the mining difficulty on the network’s own nodes, averaged about 6.8 GH/s on Tuesday, up from roughly 5 GH/s a year ago.
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Privacy Coins vs Bitcoin: Zcash Shows the Same Split
Monero isn’t the only one of the privacy coins doing this. Zcash trades at $1,221, up 6% since October 16 and 139% since January 1, with its NU7 upgrade due around November 5.
There is a catch with ZEC. It is still down 23% over 30 days after a September 26 peak of $1,695, so it is bouncing, not leading. Monero is the steadier of the two: up 10% over the same 30 days while Bitcoin lost 5%.
SIDE TRAIL: Zcash Price Climbs Back to $1,250 With NU7 Ten Days Away
Monero Price: Can XMR Break $620?
Not yet. The Monero price has closed between $583 and $621 every day since October 18. The October 21 close of $620.74 was its highest since January 19, and the next day’s wick to $656.74 got sold straight away.
A daily close above $621 opens $657, then the January record near $800. A close under $583, the October 23 low close, puts the 50-day moving average at $553 back in play. Even there, Monero would still be twice its February 6 low of $277.
TRAIL MAP: Your First Crypto Wallet, Set Up Safely: Hot vs Cold and the Seed Phrase
Kraken’s co-CEO summed up the pitch himself: “buy it here, take it home.” With withdrawals capped at $1,500 a month, the second half of that sentence is still the hard part.
In crypto since 2017, trading stocks for over 20 years. MBA. Follows the economic data and US markets closely.
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