The short version
- Bitcoin options expiry: about 144,000 BTC of options, worth nearly $12 billion, settle at 08:00 UTC on Friday, October 30, with max pain at $78,000.
- Max pain is a wide valley, not a magnet: anywhere from $75,000 to $81,000 the total payout to option buyers stays within $9 million, and the biggest bets, the $95,000 calls, are far out of reach.
- The crew is watching the Fed on Wednesday first, then a $78,000 to $82,850 range into Friday’s settlement.
The Bitcoin options expiry on Friday is the biggest of the month, and most of the bets in it are already lost. About 144,000 BTC of options, worth nearly $12 billion, settle at 08:00 UTC on October 30 on Deribit and OKX. Bitcoin trades at $80,855 at the time of writing.
The number traders keep quoting is max pain: $78,000, about 3.5% under the price. So what is max pain, and does it really drag Bitcoin toward it in the last days before expiry?
[TWEET: Deribit’s own post with the October 30 expiry stats (open interest, max pain, put/call). Deribit usually posts it on @DeribitOfficial the day before; paste the link here]
How Big Is the Bitcoin Options Expiry on October 30?
Nearly $12 billion. Deribit, the biggest crypto options exchange, holds 136,166 BTC of options expiring that day, worth $11.0 billion at the index price of $80,720. OKX adds 8,217 BTC, or $663 million. Ethereum options add another $764 million on Deribit, with max pain at $2,500.
This one date holds 35% of all open Bitcoin options on Deribit. That makes it the biggest expiry until the quarterly one on December 25.
The settlement price isn’t the price at 08:00 itself. Deribit uses the average of its Bitcoin index over the last 30 minutes, from 07:30 to 08:00 UTC, sampled every few seconds, so one big order at the last second can’t move it much.
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What Does Max Pain at $78K Mean?
Max pain is the settlement price at which the options in this expiry pay their buyers the least. At $78,000, every call and put expiring Friday would pay out about $126.5 million in total. At $84,000 it would be $168 million, and at $90,000 it would be $306 million.
The idea behind max pain is that the sellers of options, mostly market makers, earn the most there, and that their hedging nudges the price that way into expiry. That’s the theory. The data in this expiry shows why it’s weaker than it sounds.
Look at the payout curve and it’s almost flat. Anywhere between $75,000 and $81,000, the total payout stays between $126.5 million and $135.1 million, a gap of under $9 million on a $12 billion expiry. Other trackers put max pain at $79,000 instead of $78,000; with a curve that flat, both are the same answer.
So max pain here isn’t a magnet at one price. It’s a wide valley that Bitcoin is already standing in.
Where Are the Big Bets in This Expiry?
Far above the price. Calls, the bets on a rise, outnumber puts almost two to one: 87,551 BTC against 48,614 BTC, a put/call ratio of 0.56.
All three of the biggest positions are calls that need a big rally. The $95,000 call holds 19,948 BTC, the $100,000 call 11,286 BTC and the $90,000 call 10,728 BTC. Bitcoin’s highest price since April was $87,396, on September 21.
In total, 58,832 BTC of calls sit at $90,000 or higher. That’s two thirds of all the calls, worth $4.7 billion on paper, and Bitcoin would have to rise 11% in five days just to reach the lowest of them. Only 14% of the calls in this expiry are in the money today.
Puts are spread lower, from $65,000 to $75,000, with the most at $70,000 (4,389 BTC). They look like crash insurance that nobody has needed so far.
DISCOVER: Funding Rates and Open Interest Explained
Does Max Pain Pull the Price Before Expiry?
Sometimes, but not reliably. When Bitcoin sits close to a strike with a lot of open interest, the market makers who sold those options hedge by buying dips and selling rallies around it. That can keep the price in a tight range in the last day or two, which traders call pinning.
The pull fades as soon as the options settle. The hedges come off on Friday morning, and from then on the price is free to move again.
Options traders themselves expect a calm week. The $80,000 straddle, a call and a put on the same strike, costs about $2,560, so traders price a move of around 3% by Friday. That’s roughly $78,300 to $83,400, a range with max pain sitting just below its lower edge.
The real test comes two days earlier. The Fed decides on rates on Wednesday, October 28, and traders bet on a hold. A surprise there would matter far more than any options math.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Where Does BTC Stand Into Expiry?
Back above $80,000, but not by much. Bitcoin dipped to $79,221 on Saturday and swept the stops under $80K, then closed the day at $80,888. The Bitcoin price now sits at $80,855, right on the 50-day EMA at $80,854.
The levels the crew is watching into Friday:
- Bull case: a daily close above $82,850 puts the October 21 high near $84,900 back in play, and the payout to call holders starts to climb fast up there.
- Base case: a range between $78,000 and $82,850 into the Fed and the expiry, with max pain at the bottom of it.
- Bear case: a daily close under the $79,800 October 15 low opens $78,000 and then the 200-day EMA at $76,315.
The Bitcoin options expiry on Friday will most likely wipe out the $95,000 bets. What it won’t do on its own is decide where Bitcoin goes next; the Fed on Wednesday has a better shot at that.
On the climb since 2017. Trades futures and reads onchain data. Automates the boring parts.
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