The short version
- Crypto week ahead: Binance’s proof of reserves is due Tuesday, the same day as the US midterms, and the October jobs report lands Friday at 13:30 UTC.
- Friday matters most for Bitcoin, because Kalshi still prices a 72% chance of a Fed hike in December after September added only 29,000 jobs.
- Next: the $77,582 November open and $76,264 support, with $81,479 the first level to win back. Follow Base Camp on X for each day’s moves this week.
The crypto week ahead starts with Bitcoin at $77,654 at the time of writing, right on the November open after a 7.2% drop in October. Three dates matter most: the US midterms on Tuesday, Binance’s full proof of reserves due the same day, and the October jobs report on Friday.
None of them is a crypto event in the usual sense. All three can still move the price. Here’s every date in order, what each one means for your coins, and the levels the crew is watching.
Binance says its own money now backs every major coin on the exchange. Co-CEO Yi He put the number on it on Saturday:
Binance has allocated US$6.34 billion of its own corporate funds to the User Fund. In the current User Fund, BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD, and ZEC have all achieved 100% full reserve backing. We will continue to purchase other altcoin assets that are not yet
Crypto Week Ahead: Every Date at a Glance
US clocks went back on Sunday, so New York is now five hours behind UTC: 8:30 a.m. there is 13:30 UTC.
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Tuesday: Binance’s Proof of Reserves
Binance’s proof of reserves is the first thing to check this week. After the $6.3 billion hack on October 29, the exchange took a fresh snapshot of its balances at 00:00 UTC on October 31. Generating the full zero-knowledge proof takes 40 to 50 hours, and Binance estimates it will be ready by Tuesday.
A proof of reserves lets each user check that the exchange holds at least one coin for every coin it owes them, without Binance revealing other people’s balances. This one covers the ten coins Binance says are fully backed: BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC.
Withdrawals started again on Sunday in a first phase across 15 networks, and Binance says it has replaced about 95% of what was stolen. The last 5% is smaller altcoins it is still buying. If the proof lands on time and checks out, the biggest overhang from October is mostly gone. If it slips, expect the doubts to come back fast.
SIDE TRAIL: Proof of reserves in the Base Camp glossary
Tuesday Night: US Midterms
The US midterms run all day Tuesday, and the first polls close at 23:00 UTC (6:00 p.m. in New York). Most of the East Coast is done by 01:00 UTC, California by 04:00 UTC, so the House picture usually takes shape during the Asian session on Wednesday.
Prediction markets have mostly made up their minds. On Kalshi, Democrats are 93% to win the House and 71% to win the Senate. The House looks settled. The Senate is where a surprise could still come.
Why crypto cares: the CLARITY Act, the market structure bill, stalled in the Senate on September 15, when a procedural vote failed 49 to 50 with 60 needed, and the new Congress decides whether it comes back. A split Congress usually means slower bills, which crypto knows well by now. The bigger risk for prices is a slow or disputed count that keeps traders guessing into Wednesday, when US stocks open.
Wednesday: Circle, Riot and American Bitcoin
Wednesday is earnings day for crypto stocks. Circle reports its Q3 results before the US open and hosts a live webcast at 8:00 a.m. New York time, 13:00 UTC. The number to watch is USDC in circulation, because Circle earns most of its money on the interest from the reserves behind it.
At the same time, Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms holds its Q3 call. American Bitcoin, the miner majority-owned by Hut 8, reports after the close with a call at 21:30 UTC. With Bitcoin 38% under its record and the next halving about 17 months away, the miners’ costs per coin matter more than their revenue.
Thursday: The Bank of England
The Bank of England announces its rate decision at 12:00 UTC on Thursday, with a new set of forecasts. It moves the pound more than Bitcoin. But the Fed is leaning towards a hike, and a second big central bank turning hawkish would add to the pressure on risk assets heading into Friday.
Friday: The Jobs Report and the HYPE Unlock
Friday’s jobs report is the one with the most direct line to Bitcoin. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October payrolls at 13:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. in New York). September was weak: only 29,000 new jobs, with unemployment at 4.2%.
It matters because of December. Kalshi still prices a 72% chance that the Fed hikes at its December 8–9 meeting, down from 83% right after last week’s hawkish hold. On Kalshi’s payrolls market, traders see a 60% chance of more than 50,000 jobs and 27% for more than 100,000.
- A soft number (under 50,000, or unemployment up again) gives the Fed a reason to wait, and that’s the friendlier result for Bitcoin.
- A strong number (above 100,000) makes the December hike look like a done deal.
Friday is also the day 9.92 million HYPE vests for Hyperliquid’s team, worth about $872 million at $87.89. Whether it hits the market depends on what the team does with it. We went through how far the buybacks can soak it up.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Hold the November Open?
It can, but the cushion is thin. Bitcoin closed October at $77,582 on Binance, down 7.2% from $83,624 and its second red October in a row. That close is also November’s open, and BTC is barely above it.
The 50-day moving average (MA), the average close of the last 50 days, sits at $81,970, above price. The 200-day MA is lower at $73,194. October’s low was $76,326, just above the $76,264 swing low, and the Fear & Greed Index reads 34, fear.
- In the bull case, a clean Binance proof and a soft jobs report lift BTC back over $81,479 and towards the 50-day MA near $82,000.
- In the base case, Bitcoin chops between $76,264 and $81,479 while the election and the payrolls are digested.
- In the bear case, a hot jobs number or a Binance delay breaks $76,264, and $74,968 is next, with the 200-day MA at $73,194 below that.
TRAIL MAP: December Rate Hike Odds Slip to 70% as Gold Falls Below $4,000
So the week has two halves. Tuesday decides how much trust Binance gets back, and Friday decides how the market prices December. Mark 13:30 UTC on Friday, and don’t read too much into Wednesday’s moves before the jobs number is out.
TANG has been trading crypto since 2017. The focus is technicals, DeFi and onchain data. On the chart, that means high-timeframe support, moving averages and momentum divergences. Onchain, it means regular checkups on where the data puts the cycle. TANG once ran CryptoJungle, a free community for researching and trading together, and brings that same spirit to Base Camp as one of its co-founders.
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