The short version
- December rate hike odds fell to 70% on Kalshi, from 83% right after Wednesday’s Fed hold, as the Nasdaq lost 4.2% in two days.
- It matters because the Fed isn’t the one backing off: Musalem and Logan asked for more hikes on Friday, yet gold had its lowest close since October 2025 and silver fell to $49.
- The crew is watching the November 6 jobs report and BTC at $77,211 against support at $76,264.
December rate hike odds have lost 13 points since the Fed met on Wednesday. Kalshi now prices a hike at the December 8–9 meeting at 70% at the time of writing, 68% for a quarter point and 2% for more, down from 83% right after the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00%.
The odds didn’t fall because the Fed turned soft. Two Fed presidents asked for more hikes on Friday. They fell because tech stocks did, and gold and silver went down with everything else: gold had its lowest close since early October 2025, under $4,000.
The Kobeissi Letter caught the moment the selling reached the metals on Friday:
BREAKING: Spot gold falls below $3,950/oz and spot silver falls below $50/oz as selling pressure in tech and crypto spreads.
Silver is now below $50/oz for the first time since November 2025.
Why Are December Rate Hike Odds Falling?
The inflation data didn’t do it. On Thursday the US economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, and September PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rose to 3.6% from 3.4%. Core PCE came in at 3.1%, in line with forecasts. Kalshi barely moved: the hike stayed near 80%.
The bigger drops came with the stock market. Alphabet fell 12.6% on Thursday after its results, and Kalshi’s hike odds slid from 79% to 73% that evening as Amazon and the next batch of tech earnings landed after the close. On Friday Intel dropped 28.6% and the Nasdaq lost 2.9%, its second down day in a row, and the odds dipped again in the New York afternoon.
The argument behind the move is simple: a Fed that hikes into a falling stock market risks breaking something, so traders bet it will wait. Wage data helped a little too. The employment cost index rose 0.8% in the third quarter, down from 0.9%, with wages up 0.7%.
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The Fed Isn’t Backing Off
Fed officials said the opposite on Friday. “I judge that additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon,” St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said in prepared remarks in New York. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who votes in December, said the Fed “needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases.”
The St. Louis Fed summed up his speech the same afternoon:
Is inflation likely to stay meaningfully above the Fed’s target without additional monetary policy action? During a speech today, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he viewed that inflation scenario as more likely than one in which additional policy firming will not be
Neither comment stopped the slide in Fed rate hike odds. The quarter-point contract is back at 68%, about where it traded in late September.
SIDE TRAIL: Fed Holds Rates at 3.75–4.00%. Is a December Hike Still Coming?
Why Is Gold Falling With Hike Odds?
Fewer hike bets usually help the gold price, because gold pays no interest. Not this week. Gold futures settled at $3,898.90 on Friday, the lowest close of 2026, and spot gold trades near $3,876 at the time of writing, about 30% below its record near $5,600 on January 29.
The silver price fell harder. Futures closed at $49.10, the lowest since November 2025, and less than half the January 29 peak of $121.30.
Lower yields didn’t save them. The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.05% on Wednesday to 4.93% on Friday, but oil jumped after new tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent near $117, and that keeps the inflation worry alive. When stocks fall this fast, traders also sell what they can, and gold and silver are easy to sell.
TRAIL MAP: Bitcoin vs Gold in 2026: Both Are Down, and Neither Worked as a Hedge
What It Means for Bitcoin
Bitcoin trades at $77,211 at the time of writing, down 1.6% in a day, so softer hike odds didn’t help it either. BTC is moving with the Nasdaq, not with the Fed. The level to watch is the $76,264 support; a daily close below it opens the next support at $74,968.
The next real test for December rate hike odds is the October jobs report on November 6. Until then, they will likely keep following tech stocks, and so will bitcoin.
In crypto since 2017, trading stocks for over 20 years. MBA. Follows the economic data and US markets closely.
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