Bitcoin Price Before the Fed Decision: Three Red Weeks and One Line at $82,500

The Bitcoin price walks into today’s Fed decision bruised but still standing. BTC trades at $81,366 on Binance at the time of writing, up 2.5% from Monday’s low at $79,369, after three weekly closes in a row in the red.

The Federal Reserve announces its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC), and almost nobody expects a change in rates. What matters is what the Fed says about December, and where Bitcoin sits when it lands. So which levels decide the next move?

Market maker Wintermute put its finger on what has been driving BTC this month:

Wintermute @wintermute_t

BTC ETF flows are normalizing

After a strong run of inflows, daily flows have turned two sided and are now tracking the Nasdaq, with $636M leaving on Thursday, the largest outflow since June

Our full read on BTC into Wednesday’s FOMC ↓

12:44 PM · Oct 28, 2026 View on X

Why Has the Bitcoin Price Fallen for Three Weeks?

Because Bitcoin has been trading like a tech stock, and tech had a rough October. BTC closed the week at $83,773 on October 11, $82,116 on October 18 and $80,154 on October 25. That is a 7.4% slide from the $86,530 weekly close on October 4.

Wintermute’s market update on Monday says BTC “is following a wider macro closely now that ETF flows have started becoming more two sided.” US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $636 million on Thursday, October 22, the largest daily outflow since June, on a day the Nasdaq fell 2.6%.

The flows have turned since then. The funds took in $110.3 million on Monday and $176.0 million on Tuesday, per Farside. Two good days help, but they don’t make a trend yet.

Bitcoin Price Levels Wintermute Is Watching

Three zones, and each one lines up with something on the chart.

• $82,000 to $82,500 is the ceiling. Wintermute calls it “the level we flagged as resistance on the way up and as support since,” and BTC lost it on October 22. The 50-day simple moving average, the average close of the last 50 days, sits inside that zone at $81,944. “BTC needs to reclaim $82k to $82.5k in the near term for any trend to continue,” the desk wrote.
• $76,000 is the next floor if $80,000 gives way. Wintermute calls it “the base of the range BTC broke out of” in September, and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the July low sits right there at $76,090.
• The low $70,000s come next. The 200-day moving average is at $73,111, and $70,000 is the round number options traders are already hedging (more on that below).

Between those lines, BTC has swung from $80,000 to $82,500 for three weeks and tested $80,000 three times. Saturday’s wick to $79,221 was the lowest price since September 18. Wintermute’s own stance is plain: “We are not bearish, but we stay cautious until the FOMC is behind us and BTC reclaims $82.5k.”

SIDE TRAIL: Support and Resistance in Plain English: Floors, Ceilings and Why They Work

Where Bitcoin Options Traders Are Hedging

Some traders are paying for protection well below the price. On Deribit, 2,985 BTC of open interest, about $243 million, sits in the December 25 $72,000 put, a contract that pays out if Bitcoin is under $72,000 on Christmas Day. Another 3,143 BTC sits in the $70,000 put for the same date.

Read it as insurance. Calls still outweigh puts across all Deribit Bitcoin options, with 248,573 BTC of open interest in calls against 147,122 BTC in puts, a put-to-call ratio of 0.59. Today’s busiest trades lean the other way too: short-dated calls between $82,000 and $85,000 for Friday’s expiry, cheap bets that BTC pops through the ceiling.

Hold or Hawkish Surprise: What Each Could Mean for Bitcoin

A hold is priced in. Traders on Kalshi give it 95%, with 5% on a quarter-point hike. The Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, and Kalshi prices another hike in December at 77%. So the decision should move little on its own. The wording about December is the real event.

• Hold, December left open: the statement or Kevin Warsh at the 2:30 p.m. ET (18:30 UTC) press conference keeps December a live option without pushing it. Wintermute says that “would give BTC room to reclaim $82k, at least until Thursday’s PCE.”
• Hawkish hold: rates stay put, but the Fed leans on December. This is the version that has hurt crypto all year: Bitcoin fell in the first two hours after all five Fed holds of 2026 on Binance. Wintermute expects such a statement “would push yields back up and test $80k again.”
• Surprise hike: the 5% outcome, and the odd one. Wintermute thinks it “would clear the December overhang and could lead to a relief bounce.” September’s hike was the only Fed day this year when BTC was higher two hours later.

There is a catch with the friendly outcome. Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation, the Fed’s favorite price gauge, land on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 UTC). Wintermute warns that a soft hold “followed by hotter than expected PCE” would set off a selloff led by AI stocks, “and that would likely include BTC.”

TRAIL MAP: Trendlines, Ranges and Breakouts: Drawing Them Right and Trading Them Better

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Reclaim $82,500 After the Fed?

Not before the statement, and only with help from Warsh after it. The Bitcoin price sits at $81,366, just under the 50-day average at $81,944, and today’s high at $81,823 stopped short of it. BTC has not closed a day above $82,500 since October 21.

The Fear & Greed Index reads 51, neutral, which fits a market waiting for someone else to move first.

• Bull case: the Fed leaves December open, BTC closes a day above $82,500, and the October 21 high at $84,898 comes back into view, then $87,220 from October 2.
• Base case: the hold changes little and BTC chops between $80,000 and $82,500 into Thursday’s PCE and Friday’s options expiry.
• Bear case: the Fed leans on December, BTC closes a day under Saturday’s $79,221 low, and the next stop is $76,000. Below that sit the 200-day average at $73,111 and the $70,000 to $72,000 area where those December puts are parked.

Three red weeks have pushed Bitcoin into a corner, not through the floor. Today’s decision picks which wall it tests first.

Written by

Satoshi Flipper

In crypto since 2017, trading stocks for over 20 years. MBA. Follows the economic data and US markets closely.

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