The short version
- Circle stock fell 6.2% to $80.57 on Monday after Mizuho cut its price target to $43 from $45 and kept its Underperform rating.
- Mizuho’s simulation found AI assistants such as Meta’s Muse steer savers away from USDC toward insured accounts that pay interest, a risk it puts at $4 billion to $9 billion of USDC supply and 10% to 20% of reserve income.
- The crew is watching USDC supply, now $71.7 billion and down $2.9 billion in October, ahead of Circle’s results on November 4 at 13:00 UTC (8:00 a.m. in New York).
Circle stock is having the worst day of any big crypto stock. CRCL fell 6.2% to $80.57 by noon in New York (16:00 UTC) on Monday, after touching $78.81, its lowest level of the session. The trigger was a note from Mizuho that cut its price target to $43 from $45 and kept its Underperform rating.
Mizuho’s reason is new. It isn’t worried about another stablecoin this time, but about AI assistants. When Mizuho asked them where to keep spare cash, they steered people away from USDC. So how much of Circle’s business could a chatbot really move?
Circle has spent the year pitching USDC as the money AI agents will use. CEO Jeremy Allaire in April:
We've just launched the first multichain payment gateway for agents, across 11 chains, USDC + x402 support for sellers and buyers, and support for 0.000001 sized nanopayments. It's an open and permissionless protocol on the internet.
circle.com/blog/nanopayme…
Why Is Circle Stock Falling Today?
Because a Wall Street bear just got more bearish. Mizuho’s $43 target sits about 47% below Monday’s price, and the bank has rated Circle Underperform since July, when it first worried about competing stablecoins.
The rest of the sector didn’t help. Every big crypto stock was red by midday except Galaxy, and Bitcoin sat at $80,393, down 2.2% in a week. Circle fell nearly three times as much as Coinbase or Strategy.
Not every analyst agrees. Baird keeps an Outperform rating with a $100 target, Susquehanna and TD Cowen both sit at $92, and Tiger Securities has $115.
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What Mizuho Found When It Asked AI Agents About USDC
Mizuho ran a simulation: a user asks an AI assistant where to hold cash. Agents such as Meta’s Muse, which launched in September and can make payments, mostly said to skip USDC. They pointed to FDIC-insured accounts that pay interest, such as SoFi’s. Even users who wanted to stay in crypto were sent to platforms other than Circle.
The yield gap is the whole problem. Circle itself pays USDC holders no interest; it keeps the interest on the Treasuries and cash behind each coin. An AI agent that compares the two options for a saver will find the account that pays.
Mizuho put numbers on it:
- USDC supply: $4 billion to $9 billion of medium-term downside.
- Reserve income: 10% to 20% lower, the money Circle earns on USDC’s reserves.
- 2027 EBITDA: cut about 5%, which puts Mizuho roughly 30% below the average estimate.
A 10% to 20% hit sounds manageable until you look at Circle’s margins. In its own breakdown of USDC’s economics, Circle says it made about $1.4 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, paid about 59 cents of every dollar to partners like Coinbase, and kept about 7 cents as profit.
Is USDC Supply Already Shrinking?
Yes, and by about as much as Mizuho’s warning. USDC supply stands at $71.7 billion on DefiLlama, down from $74.6 billion on September 30. That is $2.9 billion gone in October alone, 3.8%.
The bigger picture is worse. USDC peaked at $79.6 billion on March 18. Since then, $7.9 billion has left, close to the top of Mizuho’s $4 billion to $9 billion range, before AI agents have had much of a say.
That isn’t the agents’ doing yet. Rates, trading volumes and rival stablecoins all move supply. But it means Circle reports its third quarter with fewer coins earning interest than it had in the summer.
SIDE TRAIL: Coinbase Earnings Preview: A $600M Bitcoin Paper Gain Could Hide Weak Trading
How the Other Crypto Stocks Did on Monday
Strive had the second-worst day, even after it bought 6,182 BTC for $511.4 million last week. Buying Bitcoin with money raised from a 15% preferred stock doesn’t impress shareholders when Bitcoin trades below Strive’s $82,732 average price.
Galaxy was the only one in the green, up 4.2% with no company news out by midday. BitMine, the biggest Ethereum treasury company, slipped 3.4%.
What to Watch Before Circle’s Earnings on November 4
Circle reports third-quarter results on Wednesday, November 4, before the US open, with a live video webcast at 8:00 a.m. ET (13:00 UTC). Analysts expect about $788 million in revenue, up from $701 million in the second quarter.
- USDC supply: Under $71 billion before the report would add weight to the Mizuho note.
- Reserve income per coin: Higher rates can cover a smaller float for a while; Baird already expects USDC’s 4% drop in the quarter to be partly offset by rates.
- What Circle says about AI agents: Shareholders can send questions from October 28. Expect one about the Mizuho test.
- The $78.81 low: Monday’s low is the first level to hold. Below it, Circle stock gives back more of its run to a $103 close in early September.
TRAIL MAP: Bitcoin vs Altcoins vs Stablecoins vs Memecoins: What You’re Actually Buying
One analyst note doesn’t empty a $72 billion stablecoin. But Circle is selling USDC as the money AI agents will pick, and Mizuho just asked the agents. On November 4, Circle gets to answer.
In crypto since 2017, trading stocks for over 20 years. MBA. Follows the economic data and US markets closely.
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