The short version
- Bitcoin options bet: one wallet on Derive bought 800 Bitcoin calls with a $90,000 strike expiring November 6, about $68 million in face value and the largest open Bitcoin position on the exchange.
- The trader was paid about $940,000 to open it by selling 400 calls at $90,000 for October 30 and 400 at $100,000 for March 2027, so the post-midterm bet is free but leaves a short call open until March.
- The crew is watching the Fed on October 28 and the November 3 vote, with $84,898 as the first level Bitcoin has to clear on the way to $90,000.
One Bitcoin options bet now towers over everything else on Derive. On October 20, a single wallet bought 800 Bitcoin calls with a $90,000 strike that expire on November 6, three days after the US midterm elections. Derive, the biggest onchain options exchange, put the position at about $68 million in face value and called it the largest open Bitcoin position on its platform. Bitcoin trades at $80,400 at the time of writing.
It isn’t the first time Derive’s traders have played a US vote. Before the 2024 election, the exchange shared what its options were pricing:
Bitcoin options signal a one-third chance of a greater than 10% swing in the price of the largest digital asset on Election Day on Nov. 5, Nick Forster, founder of crypto trading platform derive.xyz
The odd part is the price tag. The trader didn’t pay to open this bet; they were paid about $940,000 to put it on. So how does that work, and what does Bitcoin need to do by November 6 for it to pay off?
What Did the Trader Buy on Derive?
A one-week shot at $90,000, paid for with two other bets. The wallet bought 800 Bitcoin call options, each covering one Bitcoin, and sold two batches of calls against them in the same trade:
Derive’s $68 million is face value, and it works out to about $85,000 per Bitcoin, close to where Bitcoin traded on October 21. At $80,400, those 800 Bitcoin come to about $64 million. Either way, the cash at risk is far smaller.
Derive itself is a big fish in a small pond. It handled $3.27 billion of options volume in the last 30 days, according to DefiLlama, about four fifths of all onchain options trading. That’s still a fraction of Deribit, where 393,000 BTC of Bitcoin options, about $31.6 billion, sit open right now.
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Why Was the Trader Paid $940,000 to Make This Bitcoin Options Bet?
Because the calls they sold were worth more than the calls they bought. Time is what an option buyer pays for, and the three legs have very different amounts of it.
The November 6 calls have 11 days left and need a rally of almost 12%, so they’re cheap. On Deribit, the same call costs about $129 per Bitcoin today, or roughly $103,000 for all 800. March 2027 calls have five months left, so they cost about $2,510 each, even with a $100,000 strike. Selling 400 of those brought in most of the money.
The October 30 leg looks like a roll. Selling a $90,000 call that expires this Friday and buying the same strike a week later moves a bet past an event, and the event here is the November 3 vote.
So the trade splits in two. Until November 6, the wallet has a cheap lottery ticket on a post-election rally, already paid for. After that, it is still short 400 calls at $100,000 until March. If Bitcoin climbs above $100,000 by then, the trader owes $400 for every dollar above that strike. Deribit’s prices give about a 1-in-6 chance that Bitcoin ends March above $100,000.
SIDE TRAIL: Bitcoin Options Expiry: Nearly $12B Expires Friday With Max Pain at $78K
What Does Bitcoin Need for the $90K Bet to Pay?
A close above $90,000 at 08:00 UTC on November 6. Derive options settle on the 30-minute average of the Bitcoin price before that time, paid out in USDC. Every $1,000 above $90,000 is worth $800,000 to the wallet. At $95,000 that’s $4 million; at $100,000 it’s $8 million.
The market doesn’t think much of those odds. On Deribit, the November 6 $90,000 call has a delta of 0.055, which roughly means options traders price a 1-in-20 chance that Bitcoin ends above the strike.
Two dates stand in the way. The Fed decides on rates on Wednesday, October 28, at 18:00 UTC (2:00 p.m. in Washington), and traders bet on a hold. Then come the midterms on Tuesday, November 3.
History is mixed. After the 2018 US midterms, Bitcoin fell from $6,519 on election day to $3,509 a month later. In 2022, it dropped from $18,547 to a low of $15,781 within two weeks, as FTX collapsed in the same week as the vote. The 2024 presidential vote went the other way: $69,372 on election day, $96,946 a month later. Midterms haven’t done that so far, though neither midterm crash was about the vote itself.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: How Far Is $90K?
Further than it looks. The Bitcoin price sits at $80,400, just under the 50-day moving average (MA) at $81,855, and it hasn’t traded above $90,000 since January 28. Its highest point in the last six months was $87,396 on September 21. The 200-day MA is far below at $73,031.
- Bull case: a daily close above $84,898, the October 21 high, puts $87,396 back in reach, and a break of that opens the way to $90,000 before November 6.
- Base case: Bitcoin ranges between $79,800 and $84,898 through the Fed and the vote, and the November 6 calls expire worthless while the wallet keeps its $940,000.
- Bear case: a daily close under $79,800, the October 15 low, opens a slide toward the 200-day MA at $73,031 and makes the March short look like the safest part of the trade.
TRAIL MAP: Risk/Reward and Why Your Win Rate Matters Less Than You Think
This Bitcoin options bet cost nothing up front and pays big if the 1-in-20 shot lands. The bill, if one comes, arrives in March.
In crypto since 2016. Covers altcoins and the daily market. When not trading, out climbing and traveling.
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