The short version
- Coinbase earnings land on October 29 after the US close, with Wall Street expecting $1.21 billion in revenue and a loss of $0.23 a share.
- It matters because Coinbase holds 17,311 bitcoin and 150,279 Ethereum, and Q3 price moves put about $600 million of paper gains on them, enough to flip the headline to a profit.
- The crew is watching transaction revenue against the roughly $600 million the consensus implies, adjusted EBITDA, and COIN at $164.45 after 10%+ swings on three of the last five reports.
Coinbase earnings land on Thursday, and the headline number may say very little about the business. Wall Street expects a loss of about $0.23 a share. But Coinbase holds 17,311 bitcoin of its own, and bitcoin rose 43% in the third quarter.
COIN stock goes in weak. It closed at $164.45 on Friday, down 12% from $186.41 at the end of September. So what decides the reaction this time: the paper gain, or the trading?
Last quarter’s report missed on both lines, as this summary from the night shows:
$COIN
| COINBASE GLOBAL, INC. Q2 2026 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
◆ EPS: $-1.36 vs. $-0.23 est. ❌
◆ Revenue: $1.22B vs. $1.29B est. ❌
◆ Net Income: -$359.5M (-125.2% YoY)
◆ Operating Income: -$113.5M (+360.0% YoY)
◆ Operating Expenses: $1,333.6M (-12.4% YoY)
◆ H1 Operating
When Are Coinbase Earnings, and What Does Wall Street Expect?
The Coinbase Q3 results come out after the US close (4:00 p.m. ET, 20:00 UTC) on Thursday, October 29. Coinbase then takes questions in a live Q&A on X at 2:00 p.m. PT (21:00 UTC), also streamed on YouTube. That is one day after the Fed decision and two days after Robinhood reports, so crypto stocks have a busy week.
The consensus on MarketBeat sits at $1.21 billion in revenue and a loss of $0.23 per share. A year ago, Coinbase made $1.87 billion and earned $1.50 a share. In Q2 it brought in $1.22 billion, its third revenue miss in a row, and lost $359 million.
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Can Trading Revenue Hold Up in Q3?
The consensus assumes it does. Coinbase guided subscription and services revenue, mostly the interest it earns on USDC, to $500 million to $580 million. Take the middle of that range and about $66 million of other income out of $1.21 billion, and Wall Street is pencilling in roughly $600 million of transaction revenue. That is flat with Q2’s $599 million.
The only hard number from Coinbase is weak. Transaction revenue was about $130 million from July 1 to July 26, and management warned against extrapolating it.
Here’s a simple check using Coinbase’s own exchange data. The four biggest USD markets on Coinbase Exchange (BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP) traded about $91 billion in Q2 and $80 billion in Q3, 12% less. At Q2’s revenue per dollar traded, that points to about $530 million. At the richer rate of those first 26 days of July, it points to about $620 million.
So $600 million is possible, but it sits near the top of the range. August and September carried the quarter: July was the quietest of the six months since April on those order books.
The $600 Million Wildcard: Coinbase’s Own Bitcoin
Coinbase’s bitcoin holdings are the part most previews skip. The company marks the crypto it holds as an investment to market every quarter, and the swings run straight through net income.
At the end of June, its quarterly report listed 17,311 bitcoin and 150,279 Ethereum held for investment. Bitcoin went from $58,625 to $83,624 on Binance in Q3, and Ethereum from $1,572 to $2,686. If Coinbase still held the same coins, that’s about $433 million on bitcoin and $167 million on Ethereum, roughly $600 million before tax.
A $0.23 loss across 263 million shares is about $60 million. A gain ten times that size could turn the headline into a profit, even if trading came in soft. It worked the other way in Q2: a $209.5 million loss on the same holdings helped turn an expected $0.23 loss into a $1.36 loss.
That’s why the crew reads adjusted EBITDA first. It strips the paper gains out, and it has been positive for 14 straight quarters, with $208 million in Q2.
DISCOVER: Strategy Break-Even Price: Bitcoin Sits Just 6.8% Above $75,446
How Has COIN Stock Reacted to Past Coinbase Earnings?
Hard, in both directions. Here is the close on report day and the next day:
| Report | Close on report day | Next day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 (July 31, 2025) | $377.76 | $314.69 | −16.7% |
| Q3 2025 (October 30, 2025) | $328.51 | $343.78 | +4.6% |
| Q4 2025 (February 12, 2026) | $141.09 | $164.32 | +16.5% |
| Q1 2026 (May 7, 2026) | $192.96 | $201.16 | +4.2% |
| Q2 2026 (July 30, 2026) | $163.58 | $146.26 | −10.6% |
Three up, two down, and two moves above 15%. Five reports are a small sample, but a 10% swing either way is normal for this stock.
What to Watch on October 29
These are the lines worth checking first in the release:
- Transaction revenue against about $600 million. Near $530 million would say the bitcoin rally didn’t bring traders back.
- The gain on crypto held for investment. Anything near $600 million explains a surprise profit. Then look past it.
- Adjusted EBITDA. A 15th positive quarter is the line Coinbase has promised in every market.
- Subscription and services against $500 million to $580 million. Lower rates eat into the USDC income that makes up most of it.
- Prediction markets and October trading. Prediction markets passed $100 million in annualized revenue in Q2, more than doubling. Any October numbers show whether trading held up after the quarter closed.
EXPLORE: Robinhood Earnings Preview: Prediction Markets Now Outearn Crypto. Can Q3 Flip It Back?
At the time of writing, bitcoin trades near $79,355, below where Q3 ended. Coinbase earnings will likely print a better headline than the business behind it. Transaction revenue under $550 million with a big paper gain on top would tell you the quarter was carried by bitcoin, not by Coinbase traders.
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