The short version
- Robinhood earnings land on October 27 after the close, and prediction markets now outearn crypto: event contracts made $156 million in Q2 against $100 million from crypto trading.
- It matters because Wall Street expects crypto revenue to jump to $135.6 million, while Robinhood app crypto volume in Q3 is running near Q2 levels despite a 43% bitcoin rally.
- The crew is watching crypto revenue against that $135.6 million, event contracts above $156 million, and HOOD at $95.07 after five straight drops on report days.
Robinhood earnings land on Tuesday, and for once the crypto line is not the one carrying the story. In the second quarter, event contracts brought in $156 million, up more than tenfold. Crypto trading made $100 million, down 38% and its third straight drop.
HOOD stock is nervous going in. It closed at $95.07 on Friday, down 23% from $124.25 on September 22. So which of the two lines decides the reaction this time?
The Block put the flip in one line when the last report came out:
THE BLOCK: Robinhood's prediction market transaction revenue surpassed revenues for both crypto and equities trading in the second quarter. $HOOD
The company said its transaction-based revenues rising 44% year-over-year in Q2 2026 was "primarily driven by event contracts revenue
When Are Robinhood Earnings, and What Does Wall Street Expect?
Robinhood reports third-quarter results after the close on October 27, with a video call at 5:00 p.m. ET hosted by CEO Vlad Tenev and CFO Shiv Verma. It streams on YouTube, X and in the app. That is also day one of the Fed meeting, so expect a busy evening.
The Zacks consensus sits at $0.55 in earnings per share on $1.42 billion in revenue, up about 11% from a year ago. For context, Q2 came in at $1.31 billion and $0.62, although $0.14 of that EPS was a one-off gain from deconsolidating a venture fund.
Can Crypto Revenue Bounce Back in Q3?
Some of it, but probably less than analysts pencil in. The consensus for crypto revenue is $135.6 million, up a third from Q2.
Bitcoin did its part. BTC closed June at $58,625 on Binance and September at $83,624, a 43% quarter. Robinhood customers barely followed it. App crypto volume was $4.3 billion in July, $7.4 billion in August and about $7 billion from September 1 to 24, roughly $18.7 billion so far against $18 billion in all of Q2. Bitstamp adds more volume, but at much thinner fees.
Here’s a simple check. In both Q1 and Q2, Robinhood earned about 0.56% of its app crypto volume as revenue. Finish September at the same daily pace and the app lands near $20.5 billion for the quarter. At 0.56%, that’s about $115 million. Beating $135.6 million needs a higher fee mix, or a much stronger last week of September than the monthly data shows.
For context, crypto made $268 million in Q3 2025, almost as much as options at $304 million. Nobody expects that back.
Prediction Markets: The Line That Now Moves the Stock
Event contracts are on a different trajectory. Robinhood traded 13.6 billion contracts in Q2. In Q3 it did 6.1 billion in July, 4.7 billion in August and about 4.4 billion in the first 24 days of September. That’s 15.2 billion already, with six more days still to count.
In other words, if the fee per contract holds near the 1.15 cents it earned in Q2, prediction market revenue could pass $170 million. That would keep it Robinhood’s second-biggest trading line after options, and well ahead of crypto again.
It is also the riskiest line on the page. Robinhood asked the Supreme Court in September to hear its fight with Nevada, and in a separate case it agreed to stop new sports contracts for Michigan customers. The whole sector is also under a brighter light this week, after the Pentagon banned staff from insider betting on these markets, as we covered in Prediction Markets Under Pressure.
DISCOVER: Fed Meeting Next Week: Traders Bet on a Hold. What It Means for Bitcoin
How Has HOOD Stock Reacted to Past Robinhood Earnings?
Badly, five reports in a row. Here is the close on report day and the next day:
| Report | Close on report day | Next day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 (July 30, 2025) | $106.10 | $103.05 | −2.9% |
| Q3 2025 (November 5, 2025) | $142.48 | $127.08 | −10.8% |
| Q4 2025 (February 10, 2026) | $85.60 | $77.97 | −8.9% |
| Q1 2026 (April 28, 2026) | $82.07 | $71.20 | −13.2% |
| Q2 2026 (July 29, 2026) | $89.84 | $86.60 | −3.6% |
Three of the last four beat estimates. The stock fell anyway. Five quarters is a small sample, but it says the bar is set by the details, not the headline beat.
What to Watch on October 27
These are the lines worth checking first in the release:
- Crypto revenue against $135.6 million. Near $115 million would confirm that the bitcoin rally didn’t bring Robinhood’s crypto traders back.
- Event contracts revenue and contracts traded. A number above Q2’s $156 million keeps prediction markets as the growth story, especially in Rothera’s first full quarter. Rothera is the exchange Robinhood runs with Susquehanna and launched in June.
- September volumes and any October numbers. Robinhood holds back the full September data for this release, and the October figures show whether crypto trading held up after the quarter closed.
- Anything on legal costs or state cases. Robinhood’s expense outlook leaves out “potential significant regulatory matters”, so watch for a new line there.
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EXPLORE: Risk Management: The 1% Rule and Position Sizing That Keeps You in the Game
Robinhood earnings used to be a crypto proxy. This quarter they are a test of its prediction market business. A crypto line below $120 million with event contracts above $170 million would tell you exactly which way the company is leaning.
On the climb since 2017. Trades futures and reads onchain data. Automates the boring parts.
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