The short version
- CPI report today: US prices rose 0.4% in October and core rose 0.3%, against forecasts of 0.3% and 0.2%.
- There’s no yearly rate this time, because October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown, so the monthly change is the number that counts.
- Bitcoin fell to $73,899 after the release, down 0.6%, as Kalshi’s odds of a December hike rose to 86% for a quarter point and 13% for a half point.
- Next: producer prices on Friday at 13:30 UTC, then the Fed on December 8–9.
The CPI report today was the last inflation check the Fed gets before its next meeting, and traders had mostly made up their minds already. US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% economists polled by Dow Jones expected. Core inflation, the index without food and energy, rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.
There’s no yearly rate to go with it. The 2025 shutdown stopped price collection for October 2025, so the Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t publish 12-month changes for most of the index this time. The monthly change is the whole story, and it ran hot again after a 0.6% rise in September, when core was also up 0.3%.
Bitcoin didn’t like it. BTC traded at $73,899 at the time of writing, down 0.6% since the 13:30 UTC release, after a dip to $73,525, just $15 above Sunday’s low. On Kalshi, the odds of a quarter-point December hike rose from 81% to 86%, and a half-point hike jumped from 2% on Monday to 13%. A hot core is the one result that makes the Fed’s choice easy, and risk assets felt that first.
Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal set the bar for October CPI on Monday evening, with core seen near 0.22%:
Economists expect growth in the core CPI to have moderated in October to around 0.22%, though the full range of estimates is broad enough to round down to 0.1% or round up to 0.3%.
Due to the government shutdown in Oct 2025, there's no tidy year-earlier figure.
Why Core Decides the December Hike
This was the last inflation report the Fed sees before it meets on December 8–9, and traders came in already leaning hard towards a hike. Before the release, Kalshi priced a quarter-point December hike at 81%, up from 77% a day earlier.
Friday’s jobs report did most of that work. The US added 165,000 jobs in October against roughly 65,000 expected, and hike odds jumped the same evening.
That’s why core matters more than the headline today, and forecasters agreed on it less. Kalshi traders put the odds of core above 0.2% at just 37% before the release.
The chain runs like this:
- Gasoline got a little cheaper in October, so it pulls the headline down, but the Fed looks through fuel.
- Core CPI shows whether rents, insurance and services are still running hot. It rose 0.3% in both August and September.
- October brought a third 0.3% in a row, the result that makes the hike look close to certain. A 0.2% or lower would have given the Fed a reason to wait.
Higher-for-longer rates mean a stronger dollar and tighter money, and Bitcoin and the rest of crypto trade as risk assets on days like this one.
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What Comes After the CPI Report?
A quiet bond market, then more inflation data. US bond markets close on Wednesday for Veterans Day, as SIFMA recommends, while stocks trade as normal. So Treasury yields get one session to react to the CPI report today before they pause.
Producer prices follow on Friday at 13:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. in Washington). PPI tracks what businesses pay, and a hot one would back up a firm CPI. November’s CPI only lands on December 10, the day after the Fed decides, so today’s number is the last consumer read before the meeting.
SIDE TRAIL: October CPI Tomorrow: What It Means for Bitcoin at $75K
Bitcoin Price After the CPI Report Today: Levels to Watch
Bitcoin went into the report at $74,322, about $800 above Sunday’s low, and Ethereum was at $2,070 at the time of writing, still under its 200-day moving average (MA), the average close of the last 200 days, at $2,154.
For BTC, the area to watch sits just below:
- $73,510: Sunday’s low on Binance, the lowest price since August.
- $73,195: the 200-day MA. Bitcoin has closed above it every day since mid-August.
- $75,599: this week’s high so far, the first ceiling.
- $78,354: last week’s open and the level that would undo last week’s drop.
Altcoins tend to move further than Bitcoin on macro days, in both directions. With Ethereum already below its 200-day line, a weak close would hit the rest of the market harder than BTC.
TRAIL MAP: Risk Management: The 1% Rule and Position Sizing That Keeps You in the Game
The first hour after a CPI release has been the noisiest part of the last four reports. A daily close below the 200-day MA at $73,195, the first since August, would say more than any 13:31 spike.
Teddy has been trading crypto since 2016. The focus is altcoins and EMA setups: finding coins sitting on key levels, waiting for support to hold or a range to be reclaimed, and trading the move from there. Bitcoin sets the tone, but the opportunities are usually in the alts.
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