The short version
- Fed rate decision: rates stay at 3.75–4.00% after a [FILL: vote] vote, as the 93% hold odds priced in, with [FILL: one-line headline from the statement or Warsh].
- It matters because December is still live: before the decision, CME FedWatch put a December 9 hike at about 78% and Kalshi at 79%, and the Fed sees two jobs reports first.
- The crew is watching BTC at [FILL: price] against $80,000 support, after bitcoin fell in the first two hours of all five Fed holds this year.
The Fed rate decision came in exactly as priced: no change. The Federal Reserve [FILL: link “kept its rate at 3.75% to 4.00%” to the statement, federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm] on Wednesday in a [FILL: vote, e.g. 11 to 1] vote, after Kalshi traders had priced a hold at 93% going in.
Bitcoin [FILL: BTC reaction, e.g. “dipped 1.2% to $79,600 in the first hour”]. That fits the pattern of this year. So the hold is settled, and the real question for crypto traders is the one Kevin Warsh was asked half an hour later: is December still a hike?
[FILL: @federalreserve X post with Warsh’s October 28 opening statement or the statement link, posted Wednesday]
What Did the Fed Decide on October 28?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, where it has been since the quarter-point hike on September 16. That was the first move of the year, and it passed 12 to 0.
[FILL: what changed in the statement wording vs September, e.g. inflation “remains high”, any new line on the labor market or “additional firming”]
[FILL: dissents. If any official voted for a hike, name them and say that three did the same in July. If none: “Nobody dissented this time, unlike July, when three officials voted for a hike.”]
There were no new projections today. The next set, the “dot plot” of where each official sees rates going, comes with the December meeting.
Sponsored · Affiliate link
Save 20% on fees trading on WEEX
Base Camp may earn a commission if you sign up. It never affects what we write.
What Did Warsh Say About December?
[FILL: Warsh’s key line on December in quotes, from the press conference, plus one sentence on how it landed]
Warsh rarely gives dates, and he has said so. “I’m not a data-point-dependent guy,” he said at the September press conference. What he has given is the bar for acting: the Fed “must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed.” He has called inflation “too high” for “too long”.
This is the September press conference where he set out that bar, on the day of the hike:
Chairman Warsh reads opening statement at the #FOMC press conference on September 16, 2026: youtube.com/shorts/CLQEasK…
The data since then has not cleared it. September CPI inflation came in at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August. And in September, 16 of 18 officials already pencilled in at least one more hike before the year is out.
December Hike Odds: What the Market Prices Now
The market still expects a December rate hike, and today [FILL: “did little to change that” / “pushed those odds up” / “pulled them down”]. Before the Fed rate decision, the CME FedWatch tool priced a December hike at about 78%, and Kalshi at 79%, with a small slice on a half-point move. A Reuters poll of economists last week found all 100 expect a hike on December 9.
[FILL: December odds after the decision: CME FedWatch and Kalshi, with the time]
Six weeks is a long time, though. These are the dates that can move December between now and then:
| Date | What | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday, October 29 | Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the morning after the decision |
| Friday, November 6 | October jobs report | September added only 29,000 jobs |
| Friday, December 4 | November jobs report | The last big data point before the meeting |
| December 8–9 | Fed meeting with new projections | The decision, plus every official’s rate path |
November’s CPI lands on December 10, a day after the decision, so October’s inflation report in mid-November is the last one the Fed sees. For the full week, see our crypto week ahead, and for the three ways today could have gone, our Fed meeting preview.
DISCOVER: Futures and Leverage Explained: Perps, Margin and How Liquidation Really Works
How Did Bitcoin React to the Fed Rate Decision?
Bitcoin has sold the first two hours of every Fed hold this year. We took BTCUSDT on Binance from the 2:00 p.m. ET statement to two hours later, which covers the press conference, and to 24 hours later:
| Meeting | Decision | BTC at 2:00 p.m. ET | After 2 hours | After 24 hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 28 | Hold | $89,544 | −0.5% | −6.8% |
| March 18 | Hold | $71,595 | −0.7% | −2.4% |
| April 29 | Hold | $76,184 | −0.8% | +0.1% |
| June 17 | Hold | $66,108 | −2.7% | −5.3% |
| July 29 | Hold, three votes for a hike | $64,270 | −1.1% | +0.9% |
| September 16 | Hike to 3.75–4.00% | $75,770 | +0.4% | +1.2% |
| October 28 | Hold | [FILL] | [FILL] | [FILL] |
Five holds, five red first hours, and the only green one was the hike. A hold means rates stay high for longer, and the press conference usually leaves December open, so the drop makes sense. The day after is a different story: two of the five holds were back above the starting price within 24 hours.
[FILL: one or two sentences on today: did BTC follow the pattern, how far did it swing between the statement and the end of the press conference, and liquidations if CoinGlass shows a notable number]
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Hold $80,000 After the Fed?
[FILL: yes/no answer in one sentence with today’s price.] Bitcoin trades at [FILL: price] at the time of writing, [FILL: above/below] its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a trend line that weights recent prices more, at $80,844. The 200-day EMA sits far lower at $76,313.
For any Bitcoin price analysis this week, the range is the same one that has held all month. Sellers capped the bounce near $84,900 on October 21 and again around $82,850, while buyers have defended the $80,000 area since early October. The wick to $79,221 on October 24 was the deepest of the month, and BTC still closed that day back above $80,000.
- In the bull case, Warsh’s words cool December odds and BTC reclaims $82,850, and a daily close above it opens $84,900 and then the October high at $87,220.
- In the base case, the hold changes nothing and bitcoin keeps chopping between $80,000 and $82,850 until Thursday’s PCE data.
- In the bear case, December odds climb, BTC closes a day below the October 24 low at $79,221, and the next stop is the 200-day EMA near $76,300.
EXPLORE: Risk Management: The 1% Rule and Position Sizing That Keeps You in the Game
The Fed bought itself six weeks. For bitcoin, the hold was never the risk; December is, and every data point between now and December 9 will be traded as a vote on it.
