The short version
- The October jobs report showed 165,000 new jobs against about 65,000 expected, with unemployment down to 4.1% and pay up 0.4% on the month.
- Kalshi’s odds of a December 9 Fed hike jumped from about 70% before the release to 78%, after starting the day at 65%.
- Bitcoin barely moved on the data and trades near $75,500, with the $74,968 swing low as the area to watch.
The October jobs report came in well above forecasts. The US added 165,000 jobs last month against roughly 65,000 expected, and unemployment slipped to 4.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said at 13:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. in Washington).
Traders did the maths fast. Kalshi’s odds of a quarter-point Fed hike on December 9 jumped from about 70% just before the release to 78% within the hour. They had started the day at 65%.
What Did the October Jobs Report Show?
A strong month across the board. Nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000, more than three times the 48,000 monthly average of the past year. Here are the main lines:
- Payrolls: +165,000 (about 65,000 expected)
- Unemployment rate: 4.1%, from 4.2% (4.2% expected)
- Average hourly earnings: +0.4% on the month to $38.00, +3.1% on the year (+0.3% expected)
- Revisions: August raised to +186,000 and September to +60,000, so 84,000 more jobs than first reported
The gains were broad. Professional and business services added 70,000, health care 42,000, transportation and warehousing 25,000 and manufacturing 19,000. No big sector lost jobs.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US economy adds 165,000 jobs in October, higher than expectations.
US unemployment rate falls to 4.1%, lower than expectations.
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Why Does a Strong Jobs Report Raise Hike Odds?
Because the Fed is fighting prices, not a slowdown. It hiked on September 16 and held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, with two officials voting for another hike. The chain from here is short:
- More jobs and faster pay mean more spending.
- More spending keeps inflation sticky.
- Sticky inflation gives the Fed its reason to hike again in December.
December rate hike odds had slid from 81% on Thursday to 65% this morning on the back of Thursday’s Nasdaq crash. Today’s numbers took most of that relief away. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.87% after the release, up from 4.84% on Thursday.
SIDE TRAIL: Jobs Report Today: Bitcoin Waits on October Payrolls as Hike Odds Drop to 65%
How Did Bitcoin and Altcoins React?
Calmly, so far. The Bitcoin price was $76,044 when the October jobs report landed and dipped to $75,600 within 15 minutes. It trades near $75,500 at the time of writing, down 4.9% in 24 hours, most of that from before the release.
Altcoins are weaker. Ethereum is down 6.4% at $2,228, Solana 5.5% at $90 and XRP 9.4% at $1.18. That fits a market already pricing a hawkish Fed: when rates look set to rise, traders cut the riskier coins first.
The area to watch is $74,968, the swing low from this week. If Bitcoin holds it on a daily close, today’s report looks like a shrug. Below it, the 200-day moving average at $73,242 is the next line, and Bitcoin has closed above it every day since August 19.
TRAIL MAP: Altcoin Season: Rotation, BTC Dominance and Why the Old Playbook Broke
The next jobs report is due on December 4, five days before the Fed meets.
Teddy has been trading crypto since 2016. The focus is altcoins and EMA setups: finding coins sitting on key levels, waiting for support to hold or a range to be reclaimed, and trading the move from there. Bitcoin sets the tone, but the opportunities are usually in the alts.
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