The short version
- BTC liquidation levels sit about 1.5% either side of $77,200: CoinGlass’s Binance heatmap shows $219 million in shorts at $78,200 to $78,800 and $165 million in longs at $75,900 to $76,300.
- Real Hyperliquid whale positions lean one way: three 40x longs worth $51 million break between $75,739 and $76,180, while the biggest short, $129.7 million, only breaks at $87,441.
- The crew is watching the $76,264 support through tonight’s monthly close (00:00 UTC) and Binance’s planned withdrawal restart early on Sunday.
BTC liquidation levels have moved down with the price, and the biggest pile now sits just under it. Bitcoin trades at $77,200 at the time of writing, down 4.4% on the week after Thursday’s Binance hack, with the October candle closing tonight.
Leveraged longs on Binance and three 40x whale bets on Hyperliquid all break in the same $75,700 to $76,300 strip. The big shorts sit 13% higher. So how close is the next forced move, and which way does it lean?
Glassnode pointed at the same floor on Friday, as the short-term holders’ average cost:
bitcoin:native is retesting the True Market Mean.
It could pull back all the way to the short-term holder cost basis at $75.8k and still be a good setup for continuation.
Retests like this are normal in an uptrend. The last one, in mid-September, came days before the high of
Where Are the BTC Liquidation Levels Right Now?
About 1.5% away on both sides. CoinGlass’s Bitcoin liquidation heatmap for Binance’s BTC-USDT perpetual puts the brightest band above the price at $78,200 to $78,800, worth an estimated $219 million, with the strongest single level at $78,209.
Below, it shows a small band at $76,650 to $76,800, about $67 million, and a bigger one at $75,900 to $76,300, about $165 million. The strongest level there is $76,172, just under Friday’s low of $76,326 and the $76,264 support on the daily chart.
A liquidation heatmap shows where leveraged traders would be forced out. Each band is a price where enough positions hit their liquidation price for the exchange to close them with market orders. Shorts get bought back above the price, longs get sold below it, and every forced order pushes price toward the next band.
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What Do the Hyperliquid Whale Positions Show?
Hyperliquid, the onchain perp exchange, shows every open position. CoinGlass tracks 338 Bitcoin positions of $1 million or more there, worth $2.44 billion, and the Hyperliquid whales lean short: $1.35 billion in shorts against $1.09 billion in longs.
Sorted by liquidation price, the Bitcoin liquidation map looks like this:
- Longs: $23 million gets liquidated by $76,000, $89 million by $75,000 and $170 million by $72,000.
- Shorts: just $33 million by $80,000, then a wall of $330 million by $88,000.
The closest big longs are three wallets with almost the same trade. 0x4b62 holds 222.9 BTC, worth $17.2 million, with a liquidation price of $76,180. 0x95fe holds $15.5 million that breaks at $75,896, and 0x2a8a holds $18.2 million that breaks at $75,739. All three run 40x, and the three accounts hold about $1.5 million of margin between them.
The wall above belongs mostly to one trader. Wallet 0xfc27 is short 1,679.9 BTC, worth $129.7 million, from $80,244 at 25x, and sits on a $5.1 million profit. Its liquidation price is $87,441.
What Changed Since Last Week?
The long leverage got thinner. Last Saturday, 44 Hyperliquid whale longs worth $211 million would have broken above $76,000. Today 12 of those wallets still hold a $1 million-plus long, and most of them have pushed their liquidation price lower.
The best-known one blinked. The wallet flagged on October 19 with $140.88 million in BTC and ETH longs sold 564.5 BTC at about $77,086 early on Friday, the hours after the Binance hack, and booked a $2.77 million loss. It still holds 671.1 BTC at 12x, with a liquidation price of $67,005.
Forced selling did the rest. CoinGlass counts $149.9 million in Bitcoin liquidations over the past 24 hours, $100.8 million of them longs.
How Big a Move Would Trigger Them?
Small ones on Binance, a 13% rally for the big short. Measured from $77,200:
On Binance the two sides are close to even. The lean comes from the whales: a 3% drop would clear $92 million in whale longs, a 3% rally only $16 million in shorts.
Are Bitcoin Traders Still Leaning Long?
Yes, and more than a week ago. The funding rate on Bitcoin perpetuals sits at the 0.01% per eight hours baseline on Binance and OKX, 0.0074% on Bybit, and the same 0.01% on Hyperliquid once its hourly rate is scaled up. Longs pay shorts, but nobody is paying up to stay in.
The crowd count is more one-sided. On OKX, 2.76 accounts are long BTC for every one short, up from 2.06 last Saturday, and on Binance the ratio is 2.67. The whales are short, the retail accounts are long.
Open interest, the value of all open futures, slipped only 0.6% over the week while the price fell 4.4%. About $44 billion in Bitcoin futures stays open across the exchanges CoinGlass tracks, $7.4 billion of it on Binance’s BTC-USDT perpetual. Traders took the drop without cutting much leverage.
SIDE TRAIL: Funding Rates and Open Interest: Reading the Crowd
Can You Trust a Liquidation Heatmap?
As a map of pressure, yes. As a list of orders, no. Binance doesn’t publish its traders’ liquidation prices, so the heatmap is CoinGlass’s estimate from open interest, price history and common leverage. The Hyperliquid positions are real, but a whale can add margin or close in a minute, and last week’s list shows how fast that happens.
TRAIL MAP: Futures and Leverage: How Liquidation Really Works
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Which Liquidation Pool Gets Hit First?
The one below, if $76,264 gives way. BTC has closed lower every day since the hack and sits 6% under the 50-day moving average at $81,954, with the 200-day at $73,178 as the last big average below.
The levels the crew is watching:
- Bull case: a push through $78,200 runs into the short band and could carry BTC to $79,857, where a 40x whale short worth $17.4 million breaks, and on toward resistance at $81,479.
- Base case: a range between $76,200 and $78,800 through tonight’s monthly close (00:00 UTC, 8 p.m. in New York) and Binance’s planned withdrawal restart early on Sunday.
- Bear case: a daily close under $76,264 sets off the $165 million Binance band and the three 40x longs, with $75,000 and $72,000 next and the 200-day average under them.
BTC liquidation levels are stacked one way this weekend. The shorts that matter wait at $87,000, while the longs sit about 1.5% under the price, in the same spot as the short-term holders’ cost.
On the climb since 2017. Trades futures and reads onchain data. Automates the boring parts.
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