Bitcoin November 2026: What Follows a Red October

The short version

Bitcoin November 2026 opens at $77,582 after October closed 7.2% lower on Binance, the first time Bitcoin has posted two red Octobers in a row since records start in 2013.
November was green in eight of 13 years, but after the three earlier red Octobers it went +11.5% (2014), −36.6% (2018) and −17.6% (2025), and the two bad ones both broke October’s low.
Next: the October low at $76,326 and $80,000 above, through Binance’s proof of reserves and the US midterms on Tuesday and the jobs report on Friday. We’ll post each one on Base Camp on X as it lands.

Bitcoin November 2026 starts from a bruise. BTC closed October at $77,582 on Binance, 7.2% below its $83,624 open, and that makes it official: two red Octobers in a row, for the first time since records start in 2013.

“Uptober” broke for the second year running. The good news is that November has been kinder to Bitcoin, green in eight of 13 years. The bad news is that the two red Octobers most like this one were followed by Novembers that lost 37% and 18%. So which November is this, and what should a trader watch to find out early?

Back on October 1, with Bitcoin near $84,000, Rekt Capital asked the question the month ended up answering:

How Did Bitcoin Close October 2026?

Red, and back inside that $60,000 to $80,000 range. The Bitcoin monthly close came in at $77,582, a 7.2% loss and the worst October since 2014, when BTC fell 13.2%.

The month did most of its damage at the end. Bitcoin set its October high of $87,220 on October 2, then spent three weeks sliding toward $80,000. The Fed held rates on Wednesday but left a December hike on the table, and the $6.3 billion Binance hack on Thursday night took out $80,000 for good. The October low of $76,326 came on Friday.

The year looks worse than the month. BTC opened 2026 at $87,648, so it is 11.5% down year to date, with five red months out of ten. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 34, in Fear.

Bitcoin November History: Is It a Good Month?

Usually, yes. Bitcoin closed November higher in eight of 13 years since 2013, and the middle result was a gain of 8.9%. The average is far higher, but only because November 2013 added 450% and drags every average with it.

Bitcoin November history 2013 to 2025: green in eight of 13 years; after red Octobers +11.5% in 2014, −36.6% in 2018 and −17.6% in 2025 — Bitcoin November returns Bitstamp and Binance

Look closer and the record splits in two. The big green Novembers (2013, 2017, 2020, 2024) all came in bull years, with Bitcoin trending up into a new high. The red ones (2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2025) came when the trend had already turned, or was turning that month. November doesn’t set the direction. It speeds up whatever is already going on.

SIDE TRAIL: Bitcoin October 2026: Second Red October in a Row Looms

What Happened in November After a Red October?

Bitcoin has had only three red Octobers before this one, and the Novembers after them went both ways:

2014: October lost 13.2%, November gained 11.5%, from $338 to $377.
2018: October lost 3.8%, November lost 36.6%. Bitcoin broke below $6,000 in the middle of the month and fell as low as $3,653.
2025: October lost 3.9%, November lost 17.6%, from $109,608 to $90,360, with a low of $80,600.

Three cases are too few to call a pattern. But one detail separated the good November from the two bad ones, and it is easy to watch: the October low. In 2014, Bitcoin never traded below October’s low of $275 during November. In 2018, it broke October’s low within two weeks and fell 41% under it. In 2025, November’s low sat 21% under October’s.

This year has something in common with all three. In 2014, 2018 and 2025 alike, Bitcoin was about a year past a cycle top, and so it is now: the all-time high of $126,080 was set on October 6, 2025. In 2014 and 2018, the bear market low came within weeks, in January 2015 and December 2018. That doesn’t make a bottom due. It does mean late-cycle Novembers have tended to be the loud ones.

What Could Move Bitcoin in November 2026?

The first week is busy. A few dates to plan around, in UTC:

Sunday, November 1: Binance withdrawals restart in phases, the first since the hack. Watch for coins leaving the exchange in size.
Tuesday, November 3: US midterm elections, and the deadline Binance set itself for its full proof of reserves.
Friday, November 6: the US jobs report at 13:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. in New York), the last big data point before the Fed.
Friday, November 27: monthly options expiry on Deribit at 08:00 UTC, the day after Thanksgiving, when US trading runs thin.

Behind all of them sits the Fed’s December 8–9 meeting. Kalshi traders price a hike at about 71%, and every strong US number this month will push that higher.

Traders on Kalshi have also started pricing November itself. The markets only opened this morning and the spreads are wide, but the early prices put about an 80% chance on Bitcoin touching $80,000 this month and about 75% on a dip below $75,000. $85,000 trades near 39%, $70,000 near 33%. In plain words, the market expects a wide month with no favourite side.

TRAIL MAP: Bitcoin Halving Cycle Explained With Data

Bitcoin Price Analysis: How to Plan Around November

Bitcoin price chart BTCUSDT daily with 50 and 200 MA, $80,000 resistance, the November open at $77,582, the October low at $76,326 and the September low at $74,968 — BTCUSDT Chart 1D Binance

Start with the October low. BTC trades at $77,790 at the time of writing, only 1.9% above the $76,326 low, so the line that split 2014 from 2018 and 2025 is close.

Above the price, $80,000 is the first ceiling: it held every daily close in October until the hack, and it now sits with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $80,411. The 50-day moving average is next at $81,970, then $82,500, the old September close level that October failed to hold. Below the October low come the September low at $74,968, the 200-day moving average at $73,194 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $72,598.

Bull case: BTC holds the October low, reclaims $80,000 on a daily close and tests the 50-day average near $82,000. That is the 2014 script: a red October followed by a green November.
Base case: a range between $74,968 and $80,000 while the Binance reserves, the midterms and the jobs report play out, with November closing within a few percent of its $77,582 open.
Bear case: a daily close under $76,326 breaks the October low, the line that came before both bad Novembers. Then the 200-day average near $73,200 is the level that has to hold.

Seasonality says a Bitcoin November is usually a good month. The October low says whether it will be a good month this year.

Written by

Teddy

Teddy has been trading crypto since 2016. The focus is altcoins and EMA setups: finding coins sitting on key levels, waiting for support to hold or a range to be reclaimed, and trading the move from there. Bitcoin sets the tone, but the opportunities are usually in the alts.