The short version
- The jobs report today lands at 13:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. in Washington), with 65,000 jobs and 4.2% unemployment expected after September’s 29,000.
- Kalshi’s December hike odds fell from 81% to 65% in a day, driven by Thursday’s 6.4% Nasdaq 100 drop rather than the labor data, which stayed firm.
- Next: Bitcoin at $75,500 sits just above the $74,968 low. We’ll post the numbers and the reaction on Base Camp on X right after the release.
The jobs report today lands at 13:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. in Washington), and it walks into a market that has already lost its nerve. Bitcoin fell about 6% in 24 hours to $75,500 at the time of writing, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.4% on Thursday, and traders cut their bets on a December Fed hike in one day.
December rate hike odds have dropped fast. Kalshi priced a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting at 81% on Thursday morning. Now it is 65%, with a hold at 36%. That is a big move for a Fed that told everyone nine days ago it isn’t done.
So the October payrolls number has a job of its own today: tell the market whether Thursday’s sell-off changed anything for the Fed.
What Is Expected From the Jobs Report Today?
Economists expect the October jobs report to show a small gain in nonfarm payrolls and no change in unemployment. Here’s the board going in:
- Payrolls: 65,000 expected (Bloomberg survey median), 29,000 in September
- Unemployment rate: 4.2% expected, 4.2% in September
- Average hourly earnings: +0.3% expected on the month, +0.1% in September
- Jobless claims: 189,000 last week, down 6,000 and near a 57-year low
Kalshi’s payrolls market agrees with the economists, roughly. It gives 66% to a number above 50,000, 40% to above 80,000 and 20% to above 125,000. A print below zero gets 10%.
The forecasts are spread wide. Barclays and Continuum Economics see about 50,000, MUFG 90,000 and RSM 95,000. The September report also cut 60,000 jobs from July and August combined, so revisions matter as much as the headline today.
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Why Are Hike Odds Falling Before the Data?
Not because of jobs. The labor data this week was firm: claims fell, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday that productivity rose 3.6% in the third quarter while unit labor costs fell 0.7%.
Productivity increases 3.6% in Q3 2026; unit labor costs decrease 0.7% (annualized rates) bls.gov/news.release/p… #Productivity #BLSdata
Falling labor costs mean wages aren’t pushing prices up, which takes some heat off the Fed. But the big drop came with the stock market. On Thursday the Nasdaq 100 lost 6.36% and the S&P 500 4.36%, with Nvidia down 9.3% and Micron 17.5%. Coinbase fell 9.7% and Strategy 9.3%. Traders bet a Fed that hikes into a crash risks breaking something.
The Fed hasn’t said that. It held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 with two officials voting for a hike, after the September 16 hike that was its first move of 2026.
SIDE TRAIL: Fed Holds Rates at 3.75–4.00%. Is a December Hike Still Coming?
How Has Bitcoin Moved on Jobs Day This Year?
Less than you’d think. Bitcoin moved under 1% in the four hours after three of the last four reports. The exception was September’s 29,000, when BTC dropped 2.3% by the evening.
What sticks out isn’t the size of the moves. It’s that a strong report and a negative one both moved it less than 1%. Bitcoin has been trading the Fed and the Nasdaq, and jobs data only matters when it changes one of them.
Bitcoin Price: The Levels Into the Report
The Bitcoin price sits at $75,500, just above the $74,968 swing low and well under the 50-day moving average at $82,044.
Below that low, the next marker is the 200-day average at $73,241, a line Bitcoin has closed above every day since August 19. Above, the first resistance is $80,500, Wednesday’s daily close before the drop. Fear and Greed fell to 28, from 50 a day earlier.
If the jobs report today comes in soft with weak wages, it would help the case for no hike and could lift risk assets. A big number with hot wages would put December back on the table on a day when stocks are already fragile. Kalshi’s 65% is the line to watch after 13:30 UTC.
TRAIL MAP: Risk Management: The 1% Rule and Position Sizing That Keeps You in the Game
The November report lands on December 4, five days before the Fed decides.
Satoshi Flipper has more than 20 years of trading experience, starting in stocks before moving into crypto in 2017, and holds an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management. The edge is reading the economic data: rate decisions, inflation, jobs numbers, earnings and the US markets that move Bitcoin.
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