The short version
- Strait of Hormuz news: Iranian state TV reported explosions in Qeshm, Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Jask on Saturday night, but said the cause is unclear, and the US has not commented.
- The same evening, US forces disabled a cargo ship trying to break the blockade of Iran, a day after Trump confirmed a “minor” strike on an Iranian anti-aircraft system.
- Markets barely moved: Bitcoin holds about $75,950 and weekend Brent trades near $97, about 1% under Friday’s $98.32 close, after a 16.4% drop last week on deal hopes.
- Next: ICE Brent and CME futures reopen Sunday at 23:00 UTC (6 p.m. in New York), and Bitcoin needs a weekly close above $78,354 to avoid a fifth red week.
“It was not yet clear whether the blasts resulted from an enemy attack or from the Iranian armed forces firing at ‘violating’ vessels.” That was Iranian state TV on Saturday night, after explosions were heard in four counties along the Strait of Hormuz, Xinhua reported.
The latest Strait of Hormuz news landed on a weekend, when only crypto and a few onchain perps trade. Here is what changed in 48 hours:
- On Friday, after Iranian media reported two blasts on Qeshm Island, Trump confirmed a “minor” US strike on an Iranian anti-aircraft system: “we knocked it out in about 15 minutes, maybe five.”
- On Saturday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two oil tankers hit mines in the strait, and the UAE rescued 22 people from a burning cargo ship.
- Saturday evening, US forces disabled a cargo ship that tried to break the blockade of Iran’s ports, and blasts were reported in Qeshm, Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Jask.
So far, markets have barely blinked. Will that hold when Wall Street opens?
US Central Command posted the ship strike as the reports came in:
CENTCOM forces disabled a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Nov. 7, after the ship’s civilian crew ignored repeated warnings and attempted to violate the naval blockade against Iran multiple times. A U.S. military aircraft fired precision munitions at the stern of St.
What Happened in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday?
Nobody has said for sure what caused the Iran explosions. Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported two blasts inside Qeshm Island, while the semi-official Tasnim said the sounds came from Iranian forces managing ship traffic and that nothing hit the island. The US has not commented on the blasts.
Some accounts on X described an exchange of fire between US and Iranian forces. No official source has confirmed that yet.
The blockade side is clear. CENTCOM said a US aircraft fired precision munitions at the stern of a St. Kitts-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman after its crew ignored repeated warnings. Since July, the command says, it has turned back 147 ships and disabled five.
Tehran isn’t backing down either. The Guards said the strait stays closed until Iran’s conditions are met, and on Saturday they lifted the country’s own 2,000-kilometer limit on missile range.
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How Did Oil, Gold and Bitcoin React?
With a shrug. Bitcoin dipped to $75,549 on Hyperliquid in the hour after the reports and trades at $75,950 at the time of writing, flat on the day. Ethereum sits at $2,238.
The weekend oil market says the same. Hyperliquid’s Brent perpetual, a contract that trades around the clock, sits at $97.35, about 1% below Friday’s close of $98.32 on ICE. Gold’s perp is at $4,067, against $4,075 on Friday, and the S&P 500 perp is 0.4% lower.
Why so calm? Oil already had a big week. Brent fell from $117.64 on October 30 to $98.32 on Friday, down 16.4%, as traders bet on a deal. Last Monday alone took it down 10.9%.
Those bets haven’t changed much. Polymarket gives Hormuz traffic only an 8.5% chance of returning to normal by December 31, on $16.9 million of bets, down from 11.5% in late October.
SIDE TRAIL: Iran War End News: What Peace Would Mean for Oil and Bitcoin
Strait of Hormuz News: What Should Traders Watch at Monday’s Open?
The first real test comes Sunday at 23:00 UTC (6 p.m. in New York), when ICE Brent and CME futures reopen. Weekend perps are thin, so a gap there would be the first sign the shrug was wrong.
The levels that matter:
- Brent: $98.32, Friday’s close. Back above $100 would mean the deal trade is fading; the 200-day moving average, the average close of the last 200 days, sits lower at $93.34.
- Bitcoin: $78,354, last week’s close. The Bitcoin weekly close at 00:00 UTC on Monday needs to beat it to avoid a fifth red week in a row.
- Stocks: the cash open at 14:30 UTC (9:30 a.m. in New York) on Monday.
Oil also feeds straight into inflation. October’s CPI report lands on Tuesday at 13:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. in Washington), with Kalshi traders already pricing a 76% chance of a December rate hike.
Those hike odds jumped after Friday’s jobs surprise, as we posted at the time:
US October payrolls smashed expectations
• 165K jobs added vs 65K expected
• Unemployment fell to 4.1%
• December Fed hike odds jumped to 78%
• Markets are now pricing in a more hawkish Fed
basecamp.markets/october-jobs-r…
TRAIL MAP: Position Sizing and the 1% Rule in Crypto
A confirmed US strike on Saturday night would change the picture. Without one, Friday’s $98.32 close is the number the oil market has to beat.
TANG has been trading crypto since 2017. The focus is technicals, DeFi and onchain data. On the chart, that means high-timeframe support, moving averages and momentum divergences. Onchain, it means regular checkups on where the data puts the cycle. TANG once ran CryptoJungle, a free community for researching and trading together, and brings that same spirit to Base Camp as one of its co-founders.
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