Bitcoin Mining Stocks Lose Nearly Half in a Month as Oil Tops $116

Bitcoin mining stocks just had a month that looks like a typo. Riot Platforms closed Friday at $12.53, down 49.7% since September 22, and MARA fell 48.5% to $7.02. CleanSpark and IREN each lost about 48%.

Bitcoin fell 5.8% over the same stretch. BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, lost 5.9%.

Oil went the other way. Brent crude settled at $116.72 on Friday, its highest close since April 29, after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it had hit seven tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. So did oil break the miners?

The Kobeissi Letter flagged the jump as Brent crossed $114 on Friday morning:

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Brent crude oil surges above $114/barrel for the first time since May 5th as US-Iran tensions escalate.

12:22 PM · Oct 23, 2026 View on X

Why Are Bitcoin Mining Stocks Falling Faster Than Bitcoin?

Because traders stopped paying for the AI story, and expensive oil made the money behind it dearer. The machines didn’t get more expensive to run.

Many of the big miners spent the last two years turning their power sites into AI data centers, often with borrowed money. That tied the shares to the AI trade. Then the September inflation report came in hot, oil kept climbing and traders started pricing a Fed hike again. Debt-funded AI builds took the hit first. Piper Sandler cut its price targets on MARA, Riot and Hut 8 on October 20, pointing to hotter inflation, higher oil and costlier credit for data center construction.

Here’s what most coverage skips: oil doesn’t power the rigs. US miners run on grid electricity and natural gas, and US natural gas futures fell 11% over the same month, to $2.64. Power got cheaper, and the shares still halved.

What Does $116 Oil Mean for Bitcoin Miners Next?

It hurts through interest rates, not the power bill. Oil this high keeps inflation fears alive. Kalshi traders give a hike at next week’s Fed meeting, October 27 to 28, about a 7% chance. Small, but a hike would land hardest on miners carrying data center debt.

The squeeze inside the business is real too. Bitcoin’s mining difficulty rose 5.92% on October 16, so the same machine now earns about 5.6% less bitcoin than before. Mempool.space estimates another rise of about 5.6% around October 29. With Bitcoin going nowhere, that cuts revenue per machine twice in two weeks.

History doesn’t help either. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted on Friday that when Brent settles into a strong uptrend above its annual average, Bitcoin “has often slowed down.”

DISCOVER: Glossary: Difficulty

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Hold $80,394 With Oil This High?

For now, just about. Bitcoin (BTC USD) trades at $80,842 at the time of writing, a hair under its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a trend line that weights recent prices more, at $80,852. Support sits at $80,394, and below it at $79,800, the October 15 low. The 200-day EMA is much lower, at $76,269.

On the way up, $81,479 and $82,300 come first, then $82,850.

• In the bull case, a daily close above $82,850 would ease the pressure and give miners room to bounce.
• In the base case, Bitcoin chops between $79,800 and $82,850 until the Fed decides on October 28.
• In the bear case, a daily close below $79,800 opens the way to the 200-day EMA near $76,269, and miners would likely fall harder than Bitcoin again.

EXPLORE: Bitcoin Cycles and the Halving: What Four Cycles of Data Actually Show

The tell for miners isn’t the oil price itself. It’s what oil does to rate bets. If Brent cools and the Fed holds, the discount on Bitcoin mining stocks can shrink fast. If oil keeps climbing into the November 3 midterms, miners stay the first thing traders sell.

Written by

VikingXBT

On the climb since 2017. Trades futures and reads onchain data. Automates the boring parts.

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