The short version
- Crypto week ahead: October CPI lands on Tuesday at 13:30 UTC, the last consumer inflation report the Fed sees before its December 8–9 meeting.
- Kalshi prices a 77% chance of a December hike and 57% odds that headline CPI rises more than 0.2%, after September’s 0.6%.
- MARA reports on Monday at 22:00 UTC and Gemini on Thursday, while Friday brings producer prices and a Bitcoin difficulty cut of about 4.4%.
- Next: tonight’s weekly close, likely Bitcoin’s fifth red week in a row, and whether Friday’s $74,888 low holds through CPI.
$10,735. That’s what Bitcoin has lost per coin in five weeks, from $86,530 to $75,795 at the time of writing. Unless it closes above $78,354 tonight, that’s five red weekly candles in a row going into the crypto week ahead.
Few thoughts on the week before we go day by day:
1. Tuesday’s October CPI is the big one. It’s the last consumer inflation report the Fed sees before its December 8–9 meeting. 2. MARA reports on Monday and Gemini on Thursday, so we get a miner and an exchange in the same week. 3. Wednesday is Veterans Day. US bond markets close, but stocks stay open. 4. Friday brings producer prices and, a few hours earlier, a Bitcoin difficulty cut.
The weekend has been quiet, maybe too quiet. TheCryptoMonk summed it up on Saturday:
This is what hell looks like.
48h stuck in a 1% range.
Time to touch some grass.
Crypto Week Ahead: Every Date at a Glance
US clocks are on standard time now, so New York is five hours behind UTC. The 8:30 a.m. data releases there land at 13:30 UTC.
Sponsored · Affiliate link
Save 20% on fees trading on WEEX
Base Camp may earn a commission if you sign up. It never affects what we write.
Monday: Is MARA Still Selling Its Bitcoin?
That’s the question hanging over MARA earnings. Its third-quarter call is on Monday at 5:00 p.m. in New York, 22:00 UTC. The miner held 35,577 BTC on June 30, after selling about 23,093 BTC in the first half of the year.
Join us for our Q3 2026 earnings call on Monday, November 9, at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Webcast details: buff.ly/8rwIDKO
The selling didn’t obviously stop there. On Thursday, Lookonchain tracked 1,650 BTC leaving MARA’s wallets for trading desks and custodians, though a transfer like that can be collateral rather than a sale. The Q3 report should settle it.
Two numbers to look for. The first is the Bitcoin count on September 30. The second is what MARA paid for power per coin, which was $38,690 at its own sites in the second quarter. With Bitcoin near $76,000, that leaves a thin margin once machines, staff and interest are paid.
SIDE TRAIL: Bitcoin Miners Selling: Core Scientific Quits Mining, MARA Moves 1,650 BTC
Tuesday: Why the October CPI Matters for Bitcoin
Because it’s the Fed’s last CPI before December, and traders already price a hike. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October’s numbers at 13:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. in Washington). November’s report only comes out on December 10, the day after the decision.
September was hot. Prices rose 0.6% in the month and 3.7% over the year, with energy up 20.4%. Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year.
Traders expect October to cool. On Kalshi, there’s a 57% chance that headline CPI rises more than 0.2% and just 15% for more than 0.3%. Core comes in above 0.2% with 39% odds.
Then there’s December. Kalshi puts a quarter-point hike at 77% and a hold at 23%. Our week ahead last Sunday picked Friday’s jobs report as the December decider, and it pushed those odds up, as we posted at the time:
US October payrolls smashed expectations
• 165K jobs added vs 65K expected
• Unemployment fell to 4.1%
• December Fed hike odds jumped to 78%
• Markets are now pricing in a more hawkish Fed
basecamp.markets/october-jobs-r…
A soft print gives the Fed room to wait. Another hot one could make the hike close to certain, and Bitcoin hasn’t liked hike odds going up.
Two more things on Tuesday:
- Waller first: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC at the Bank of England Watchers Conference in London, hours before the data.
- Earnings at the same minute: eToro reports before the US open with a webcast at 13:30 UTC, right as CPI drops. Bitdeer, which now calls itself an AI cloud company first and a miner second, holds its call at 13:00 UTC.
The inflation number will move the market more than either of them.
Wednesday: Veterans Day Shuts the Bond Market
US bond markets close on Wednesday for Veterans Day, after SIFMA recommended a full close. Stocks trade as normal. With no Treasury trading, the reaction to Tuesday’s CPI in yields carries over to Thursday.
That matters more than it sounds. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.87% after Friday’s jobs report, and rates are what crypto traders watch most right now. On Wednesday that signal goes quiet for a day, so any CPI move that spills over will show in stocks and crypto first. TheCryptoMonk had the S&P 500 just above support on Saturday:
This week was absolutely brutal for every market.
$SPX is still hanging by a thread above a key support though.
We can save the market structure with a good bounce.
Crypto doesn’t take a day off, of course. Token unlocks run all week, and the trackers don’t always agree on them, so we checked each one at two sources in our token unlocks this week piece.
Thursday and Friday: Gemini, PPI and a Difficulty Cut
Gemini releases its third-quarter results after the US close on Thursday, so from 21:00 UTC, and holds its call on Friday at 8:30 a.m. in New York (13:30 UTC). Trading volume is the number to watch, because it drives the fees an exchange earns.
That call clashes with the October Producer Price Index, out at 13:30 UTC on Friday. PPI tracks what businesses get paid for their goods and services, so a hot number there often shows up in consumer prices later. After a soft CPI, a hot PPI would take some of the relief back.
Earlier on Friday, around 11:00 UTC, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is set to adjust at block 975,744. Mempool.space estimates a cut of about 4.4% after the 5.5% jump on October 29. In other words, miners get a small break on costs, just as MARA and Bitdeer explain their quarters.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Avoid a Fifth Red Week?
Not by tonight, most likely. Bitcoin opened this week at $78,354 and trades about $2,500 under it with hours to go, so the fifth red week is close to locked in. The question is whether the next one starts any better.
The levels that matter on the daily chart:
- The floor: $74,888, Friday’s low on Binance and the lowest price since August 21.
- The deeper floor: the 200-day moving average (MA), the average close of the last 200 days, at $73,229. Bitcoin has closed above it every day since August 19.
- The first ceiling: $78,354, the weekly open, then $81,196, Wednesday’s post-election high.
- The trend line: the 50-day MA at $81,843, still above price and pointing down.
The Fear & Greed Index reads 28, fear, and the weekend range is under 1%. Ranges this tight rarely last through a CPI release.
What would turn it around: a soft CPI, a daily close back above $78,354 and the 50-day MA retaken by the end of the month. What would cancel that: a hot print and a daily close below $74,888, which leaves the 200-day MA as the last big support before $70,000.
So mark it down. Tuesday, 13:30 UTC, and the market gets its answer in one number.
TRAIL MAP: October Jobs Report: 165,000 Added, Hike Odds Jump to 78%
TANG has been trading crypto since 2017. The focus is technicals, DeFi and onchain data. On the chart, that means high-timeframe support, moving averages and momentum divergences. Onchain, it means regular checkups on where the data puts the cycle. TANG once ran CryptoJungle, a free community for researching and trading together, and brings that same spirit to Base Camp as one of its co-founders.
More from TANG
