The short version
- Bitcoin October low: Kalshi traders price a 45% chance BTC trades below $77,500 before the month ends, and Polymarket’s matching market sits at 44%.
- The same bet cost 24 cents last Wednesday, when BTC hit $84,898; it now trades at $80,190, only 3.4% above the strike, with October’s low at $79,221.
- The crew is watching Saturday’s $79,221 low and the ETF cost basis near $81,000 into Wednesday’s Fed decision at 18:00 UTC (2:00 p.m. in Washington).
The Bitcoin October low is now a coin flip on the prediction markets. Kalshi traders price a 45% chance that BTC trades below $77,500 before the month ends, and Polymarket’s matching market sits at 44%.
Five days ago the same bet cost 24 cents. Bitcoin has since lost about $4,700 from last Wednesday’s $84,898 high and trades at $80,190 at the time of writing, only 3.4% above the strike. October’s low so far is $79,221 from Saturday. With a Fed decision on Wednesday and six days left, how far do traders really think it can fall?
Glassnode drew the line that these bets are now leaning on:
bitcoin:native is testing the ETF cost basis around $81K again.
The same level capped the May rally before a deep drop, and caught last week's sweep from just below.
A convincing close below it would put mid $70K levels back into play.
Bitcoin October Low: How Far Down Do the Odds Go?
About $77,500 is where the market splits; below that the odds fall away fast. Kalshi’s “How low will BTC get in October?” market and Polymarket’s “What price will Bitcoin hit in October?” price the deeper strikes almost the same:
| October low below | Kalshi (yes price) | Polymarket (chance) | Distance from $80,190 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $77,500 | 45¢ to 47¢ | 44% | −3.4% |
| $75,000 | 15¢ to 16¢ | 17% | −6.5% |
| $72,500 | 5¢ to 6¢ | 6% | −9.6% |
| $70,000 | 2¢ to 4¢ | 3% | −12.7% |
A Kalshi contract pays $1 if it comes true, so a 45-cent price reads as a 45% chance. The $80,000 strike is already settled: it paid out on October 15, when BTC dipped to $79,800 on Binance.
The bettors see a rebound as the long shot. Polymarket gives Bitcoin only a 6% chance of reaching $87,500 in October, and 3% for $90,000. Money is on the table, too: Polymarket’s October Bitcoin event has traded $11.4 million, of which $736,000 is on the $77,500 line alone.
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Why Did the Odds Jump From 24% to 45%?
Because Bitcoin gave back the whole rally in five days. The Kalshi $77,500 contract closed last Wednesday at 24 cents, the day BTC tagged $84,898. Then the Nasdaq had its worst day since June, Bitcoin fell back under $81,000, and Saturday’s drop to $79,221 liquidated about $402 million in longs in four hours.
Sunday made it worse. BTC printed its lowest weekly close since September at $80,154, below the ETF buyers’ average cost near $81,000 that Glassnode flagged. Glassnode’s own words were that a convincing close below it “would put mid $70K levels back into play.”
The weekly markets agree on the direction. Polymarket’s contract for October 26 to November 1 gives a dip to $78,000 a 55% chance and $76,000 a 28% chance, while a climb back to $82,000 is at 61%. Traders expect a wide week, not a quiet one.
DISCOVER: Glossary: What a Prediction Market Is
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Not the Same Bitcoin Price
The two markets look alike, but they settle on different prices. Kalshi uses the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin index, an average across several exchanges, and smooths it before checking the strike: every minute it trims the top and bottom 20% of the readings and averages the rest. A two-second wick on one exchange can’t trigger it.
Polymarket is stricter. It resolves “Yes” if any single Binance BTCUSDT one-minute candle has a low at or under the strike, between midnight New York time on October 1 and 11:59 p.m. on October 31. One sharp wick on Binance is enough.
That’s why the Polymarket line can pay out while Kalshi’s doesn’t. Both end at 11:59 p.m. New York time on Friday, October 31, which is 03:59 UTC on November 1.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Stay Above $77,500 Through the Fed?
It can, but it has very little room. The Federal Reserve announces its decision on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC, which is 2:00 p.m. in Washington, and any hawkish surprise lands with Bitcoin already sitting on its October low.
The levels the crew is watching on the daily chart:
- Bull case: BTC gets back above $81,000, the ETF cost basis, with the 50-day EMA at $80,803 just under it, and the $77,500 bet starts to fade again. Above that, $84,898 is the high that capped last week.
- Base case: a range between $79,221 and $81,000 into the Fed, with the $77,500 contract swinging on every move.
- Bear case: a daily close under Saturday’s $79,221 low takes out the stops below it and puts $77,500 within one bad session. The $75,000 strike is the next stop, and the market prices it at about 16%.
EXPLORE: Advanced Market Structure: Liquidity, Sweeps and Deviations
Prediction markets are only a crowd’s guess, but it’s a crowd with money on the line. Right now that crowd gives the Bitcoin October low a coin-flip chance of landing under $77,500, and Wednesday at 18:00 UTC is when the odds should move the most.
In crypto since 2016. Covers altcoins and the daily market. When not trading, out climbing and traveling.
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