The short version
- Iran war end talk is back: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei discussed ending the war and Hormuz with security chief Mohsen Rezaei, but Tehran still wants its conditions met first.
- Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $80,162 on the headlines while Brent only slipped 1.1%, because oil traders still give Hormuz just an 11.5% chance of normal traffic by December 31.
- The crew is watching for a US reply to Pakistan’s proposal, Brent against $110, Bitcoin’s 50-day MA at $81,867 and the Fed on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC.
Iran war end talk is back, and markets reacted within minutes. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei met his security chief on Tuesday to discuss ending the war and managing the Strait of Hormuz, and Bitcoin jumped from $79,510 to $80,162 as the headlines hit.
Read the small print, though. Tehran wants its conditions met first, and Brent crude only slipped about 1%. So is peace any closer, and what would an end to the war do to oil, stocks and Bitcoin?
Walter Bloomberg put the headlines out first:
*IRAN SUPREME LEADER CALLS FOR MEETING CONDITIONS TO END WAR
*IRAN'S KHAMENEI AND REZAEE DISCUSS UNITY, HORMUZ MANAGEMENT
What Did Khamenei Say About Ending the Iran War?
He talked about ending it, on Iran’s terms. Nour News, the outlet close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said council secretary Mohsen Rezaei met Khamenei to discuss national security, Hormuz, Iran’s neighbours and ending what it called a state of “neither war nor peace”, per Iran International.
The conditions aren’t new. Rezaei sent them to Washington through Qatar in September: “Our conditions are an end to the war on all fronts, the release of our frozen funds and an end to the naval blockade,” he told Al Jazeera. Until then, Iran says, Hormuz stays shut.
Washington hasn’t moved either. Trump asked on Sunday, “do I make a deal with them, or do I finish them off?” Qatar said on Tuesday that mediation needs Iran to stop threatening Arab states and reopen the strait. There is new traffic, though: Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials met Rezaei in Tehran on Monday, and Pakistan’s army chief brought a proposal made with Trump’s blessing.
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How Did Markets React to the Khamenei Headlines?
Barely. Bitcoin rose 0.8% in 35 minutes on Binance, Ethereum climbed from $2,297 to $2,326 and tokenized gold (PAXG) from $4,005 to $4,028. Brent fell from $111.44 to $110.17 and sits at $110.69 at the time of writing. S&P 500 futures were up 0.1%.
That’s a shrug, not a peace rally. Polymarket traders give Hormuz traffic only an 11.5% chance of returning to normal by December 31, on $15.7 million of bets.
What Would an Iran War End Mean for Oil, Stocks and Bitcoin?
Oil would move first and most. Brent was $72.48 the day before the war began on February 28, so about $38 a barrel of today’s price is war premium.
We have seen two peace moments this year:
The April truce was a surprise, and oil dropped $14.52 in one day. Stocks loved it: the S&P 500 was back above its pre-war level by April 13. The June memorandum, which lifted the blockades, was expected. Brent had already fallen 9.6% in the two sessions before, so signing day did nothing.
Bitcoin fell on both days. It had run up 4.5% on April 7 as truce rumours spread, and sold the news. A real deal is an oil and stocks trade. For crypto it works slowly, through cheaper energy and a Fed with more room to cut.
SIDE TRAIL: Middle East War Fears: What They Mean for Stocks Next Week
Bitcoin Price: What to Watch Before the Fed
The Bitcoin price is $79,901 at the time of writing, back under $80,000 and below its 50-day moving average at $81,867. A daily close above that line would be the first sign the peace talk has legs. Below, the $76,264 swing low is the support that matters.
The Fed decides on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC (2:00 p.m. in Washington). Oil above $110 keeps inflation high, which is why an Iran war end matters more to Jerome Powell than to Bitcoin bulls today.
TRAIL MAP: Bitcoin Mining Stocks Lose Nearly Half as Oil Tops $116
In crypto since 2016. Covers altcoins and the daily market. When not trading, out climbing and traveling.
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