Anthropic IPO: Whale Shorts $25.6M of Pre-IPO Perps

The short version

Anthropic IPO bet: a Hyperliquid whale is short about $25.6 million of Anthropic pre-IPO perps at 6x, roughly $1.05 million in profit on paper.
The perps value Anthropic near $1.76 trillion, above Polymarket’s favourite IPO range of $1.5 to $1.75 trillion, and the wallet holds about 20% of Entropy’s ANTH market.
Next: the price range in Anthropic’s next amended filing, ahead of a listing traders expect around November 18 to 20. We’ll post it on Base Camp on X when it lands.

One trader thinks the Anthropic IPO is priced too high before it even happens. A Hyperliquid whale is short about $25.6 million of Anthropic through two pre-IPO perpetual contracts, and kept adding through Tuesday night.

The bet is already about $1.05 million in profit on paper. It was not opened overnight: the wallet started shorting Anthropic on September 21 and has been selling more almost every day since the company filed its S-1 on October 26.

Onchain tracker EmberCN flagged the position early on Wednesday:

What Did the Whale Short?

Two different Anthropic pre-IPO markets, both built on Hyperliquid by outside market builders and both at 6x isolated margin:

11,398 ANTH on Entropy’s market at an average of $1,855.78, worth about $20.2 million
48,346 ANT on trade.xyz at an average of $113.22, worth about $5.4 million

The two contracts are priced differently. Entropy’s ANTH is quoted in billions of dollars of valuation, so a price of $1,764 means the market values Anthropic at about $1.76 trillion. Trade.xyz’s ANT tracks one Class A share and only opened on October 26, the day the S-1 went public. Both convert into ordinary perps once Anthropic trades on the Nasdaq.

Wallet 0xecc8 is no stranger to stock perps. In August it shorted Meta, ServiceNow and Bloom Energy contracts on Hyperliquid. Its first Anthropic short came on September 21, when ANTH traded near $2,150. It held about 1,321 ANTH through most of October, then went big after the filing: ANTH grew to 11,398, and ANT went from zero to 48,346 in nine days. The last $3 million in fresh USDC arrived on Tuesday.

Why Short the Anthropic IPO Now?

Because the perps trade above where traders on Polymarket expect the deal to price. ANTH puts the Anthropic valuation at about $1.76 trillion. On Polymarket, the most likely IPO valuation is $1.50 to $1.75 trillion at 63%, with $1.75 to $2 trillion at 30%. The banks set the official range in an amended filing before the roadshow, and the latest S-1/A from November 2 still leaves the price blank.

The catch is that the Anthropic IPO price is not what settles this bet. Once the stock lists, the perps follow the Nasdaq price, so the whale needs Anthropic to trade below his entry after the listing, not just to price low. IPOs this hyped tend to jump on day one. Polymarket puts 52% on Anthropic closing its first day above a $1.75 trillion market cap, and 64% on a listing by November 20.

The trend has been on the whale’s side. ANTH peaked at $2,359 on September 9 and has fallen about 25% since. It lost about 9% on October 14 and 15, as reports from Anthropic’s investor day put the IPO talk nearer $1.5 trillion, and hit $1,684 on October 30.

SIDE TRAIL: JUST IN: Anthropic Files for IPO, and Amazon and Alphabet Hold the Biggest Stakes

How Big Is This Short?

Big for these markets. The whale holds about 20% of all open interest in ANTH and 11% in ANT. The contracts are thin next to a stock: ANTH did about $27 million of volume in the last 24 hours, roughly what this one wallet holds.

Hyperliquid puts liquidation at $2,514 on ANTH and $153.42 on ANT, about 43% and 38% above today’s prices. Both positions are isolated, so each one stands on its own margin. A first-day pop alone would not get there, but a listing near $2.5 trillion would.

Anthropic Pre-IPO Price: Where Are the Levels?

Anthropic pre-IPO price chart: ANTH perp daily on Hyperliquid at $1,764, below the whale's $1,856 entry and the 50-day MA at $2,003, with liquidation at $2,514 — ANTHUSDC Perp Chart 1D Hyperliquid

ANTH trades at $1,764 at the time of writing, about 5% under the whale’s average entry and well below its 50-day moving average at $2,003. The October 30 low at $1,684 is the first support, roughly a $1.68 trillion valuation. Above, $1,856 is where the short stops making money, and the 50-day near $2,000 is where it would start to hurt.

The price range in the next amended filing decides the next move. A range that points under $1.75 trillion backs the whale; one near $2 trillion puts him under water before the first trade.

TRAIL MAP: Futures and Leverage Explained: Perps, Margin and How Liquidation Really Works

Written by

VikingXBT

VikingXBT has been trading crypto since 2017. The focus is futures, onchain data and automation. Onchain flows get checked before a chart is trusted, and anything repetitive gets automated. VikingXBT built Base Camp's own onchain scanner, which flags bundlers, snipers, dev holdings and wallet clusters in one view, and backtests strategies before trading them.