Anthropic IPO Valuation: $1.5T Target, Whale Short at $46M

The short version

Anthropic IPO valuation: Anthropic is targeting $1.5 trillion and a listing before Thanksgiving, the Financial Times reported on Friday.
Hyperliquid’s ANTH pre-IPO perp fell to $1,507, about $1.5 trillion, within three hours of the report, then bounced to $1,624.
Whale 0xecc8 has nearly doubled its Anthropic short to about $46 million and is up more than $6 million on paper.
Next: the price range in Anthropic’s amended S-1, due before Thanksgiving on November 26.

The Anthropic IPO valuation finally has a number. Anthropic will press ahead with a listing before Thanksgiving and is targeting $1.5 trillion, the Financial Times reported late on Friday, despite a brutal week for tech stocks.

That is below what the Anthropic pre-IPO perps were pricing. They took the hint fast.

Entropy’s ANTH contract on Hyperliquid, quoted in billions of dollars of valuation, dropped from about $1,611 to $1,507 within three hours of the report. That low is almost exactly $1.5 trillion. It has bounced to $1,624 at the time of writing, still about 3% down over 24 hours and 13% below Wednesday’s close.

One wallet likes this more than most.

How Much Is the Whale Making?

More than $6 million on paper. The Hyperliquid whale 0xecc8 was short $25.6 million on Wednesday. It kept adding. It now holds:

23,670 ANTH short at an average of $1,838, worth about $38 million
79,730 ANT short on trade.xyz at an average of $114.39, worth about $8 million

That is roughly $46 million at 6x isolated margin, close to double Wednesday’s size. On ANTH alone, the wallet holds about 30% of all open interest.

Onchain tracker EmberCN flagged the gains on Friday, after Thursday’s tech sell-off knocked 8% off the contract:

Why Does the Anthropic IPO Valuation Matter for the Short?

Because the whale’s average ANTH entry, $1,838, is a $1.84 trillion valuation. Every step toward the FT figure is profit.

The FT figure is still only a target. The banks have to put a price range in an amended filing, and the latest S-1/A from November 2 leaves it blank. On Polymarket, $1.50 to $1.75 trillion leads the IPO valuation market at 45%, with $1.25 to $1.5 trillion at 27%. Traders give a listing by November 30 a 79% chance.

The catch has not changed. This bet settles on where Anthropic trades after it lists, not where it prices. A first-day pop would hurt. Polymarket puts 57% on Anthropic closing its first day above a $1.5 trillion market cap.

SIDE TRAIL: Anthropic IPO: A Hyperliquid Whale Bets $25.6M Against the Listing

What Does Anthropic Owe SpaceX?

Up to $120.5 billion. The S-1 shows Anthropic signed deals between May and October with SpaceX.AI, the former xAI and now a SpaceX subsidiary, for compute on Nvidia GPUs. The terms run into 2029.

Once all the capacity is delivered, which Anthropic expects in December, the bill comes to about $3.1 billion a month. Either side can walk away with 90 days’ notice, but only after the first fixed periods end in January and March 2027.

So the listing raises cash for a company with a very large compute bill. Some of it goes to Elon Musk’s rocket company.

TRAIL MAP: Funding Rates and Open Interest: Reading the Leverage in the Market

Anthropic Pre-IPO Price: Which Levels Matter?

Anthropic pre-IPO price chart: ANTH perp daily on Hyperliquid at $1,624 after a $1,507 low, below the whale's $1,838 entry and the 50-day MA at $1,972, liquidation at $2,499 — ANTHUSDC Perp Chart 1D Hyperliquid

ANTH trades at $1,624 at the time of writing. Bigger picture first: it peaked at $2,359 on September 9 and has made lower highs since. The 50-day moving average is at $1,972 and still falling.

Friday’s low at $1,507 is the line. It is also, give or take, the FT’s $1.5 trillion Anthropic IPO valuation.

Above, $1,838 is where the whale stops making money. Liquidation is far away at $2,499 on ANTH and $167.76 on ANT, close to a $2.5 trillion valuation.

The price range in the next amended filing decides who is right. Under $1.75 trillion keeps the whale comfortable; anything near $2 trillion puts the short under water before the first trade.

Written by

Satoshi Flipper

Satoshi Flipper has more than 20 years of trading experience, starting in stocks before moving into crypto in 2017, and holds an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management. The edge is reading the economic data: rate decisions, inflation, jobs numbers, earnings and the US markets that move Bitcoin.