The short version
- XRP price prediction markets turned bearish: Kalshi traders price about a 65% chance that XRP trades below $1 at some point before November ends.
- XRP trades at $1.070 at the time of writing, down about 15% in November after touching $1.0311 on Tuesday, its lowest since mid-August.
- Next: whether Tuesday’s $1.0311 low holds; the Kalshi contract runs until 04:59 UTC on December 1 (11:59 p.m. November 30 in New York).
64 cents. That was the last trade on a Kalshi contract that pays $1 if XRP dips under $1 at any point before November ends.
In other words, the XRP price prediction from the betting crowd is that a sub-$1 print is now more likely than not. XRP trades at $1.070 at the time of writing, about 15% lower than where November started, and only seven cents above the line. So how close is it really, and what would it take to get there?
Part of the slide has been leverage leaving the market, which BankXRP flagged early on Tuesday with CryptoQuant data:
XRP Binance Open Interest 30-day SMA has fallen from about 512M to about 453M since mid-October, while price has dropped to $1.11.
Leverage is clearing out of the market. Watch for OI to flatten, as that has typically preceded stabilization.
Source: CryptoQuant
What Are Kalshi Traders Betting On?
A single dip. The question is simply: will XRP go below $1 even once this month? A monthly close down there isn’t needed. The contract settles Yes if XRP is ever below $1 between its November 1 listing and 11:59 p.m. New York time on November 30 (04:59 UTC on December 1).
Kalshi doesn’t use one exchange’s price. Under its contract rules, it takes the CF Benchmarks XRP index every minute and trims the top and bottom 20% of the data first, so a brief wick on one exchange won’t settle it. XRP has to really trade there.
Two rungs of the same ladder are already done. The “below $1.20” and “below $1.10” contracts settled Yes earlier this month. The lower ones are still open:
The odds fall fast below the dollar. Traders see roughly a two-in-three chance of $0.99, but only just over one in four for $0.90.
One thing to keep in mind: this is a small market. Fewer than 2,600 contracts have traded on the $1 line, so a few traders can move these odds by several cents. Treat it as a read on sentiment with little money behind it.
Sponsored · Affiliate link
Save 20% on fees trading on WEEX
Base Camp may earn a commission if you sign up. It never affects what we write.
Why Is XRP Down This Month?
Because three things stacked up, and each one fed the next. The market-wide drop on November 5 pulled XRP down with Bitcoin. Then the wallets tied to the Binance hacker started moving stolen XRP, which gave the coin a known seller on top of the selling everyone else was doing. That hit sentiment, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index now reads 29, in fear.
XRP topped at $1.3414 on November 4. By November 10 it had touched $1.0311, its lowest price since mid-August. That is a 23% slide in six days.
SIDE TRAIL: David Schwartz Says He Sold Most of His XRP: 26M Down to 3M, 1,500 BTC Down to 1
XRP Price Prediction: Where Are the Levels to Watch?
The $1 line is the level to watch, and it is close. XRP is up 2.5% over 24 hours, a small bounce off Tuesday’s low, but the bigger picture hasn’t changed.
- The floor: $1.0311, Tuesday’s low. A clean break under it puts $1 within one bad session.
- The line: $1.00. XRP last traded below it from August 11 to 19, with a low of $0.9862 on August 14.
- The first ceiling: $1.1302, a swing high. Getting back above it would ease the pressure.
Both moving averages (MA), the average daily close over 50 and 200 days, sit far above the price: the 50-day MA at $1.35 and the 200-day at $1.26. As long as XRP stays under both, rallies are more likely to get sold than to stick.
So what does the other side of this XRP price prediction need? For the No side, priced at about 35%, the job is simple to describe and hard to do: hold above $1 for 19 more days. The last time it slipped under, XRP spent nine days dipping in and out below $1 before one day, August 19, took it back to $1.1363.
TRAIL MAP: XRP Price Sinks to a One-Month Low Near $1.28 as Whale Wallets Shrink
Teddy has been trading crypto since 2016. The focus is altcoins and EMA setups: finding coins sitting on key levels, waiting for support to hold or a range to be reclaimed, and trading the move from there. Bitcoin sets the tone, but the opportunities are usually in the alts.
More from Teddy
