The short version
- Jensen Huang’s resignation or removal by December 31 is priced at 80.5% on Polymarket after reports that Nvidia’s board is preparing to oust him.
- The NVDA perp on Hyperliquid fell as far as $156.14 overnight, about 10% under Wednesday’s $173.73 Nasdaq close, as open interest jumped to about $554 million.
- Bitcoin barely moved and trades at $73,485, just above its 200-day moving average.
- Next: the Nasdaq open at 14:30 UTC (9:30 a.m. in New York), then Nvidia’s earnings on November 17.
Crypto traders didn’t wait for Wall Street to open. Within two hours of Wednesday’s Nasdaq close, as reports spread that Nvidia’s board is preparing to remove Jensen Huang, the NVDA perp on Hyperliquid fell as far as $156.14. That is about 10% under the $173.73 close.
Polymarket moved just as fast. Its biggest Jensen Huang contract, which pays out if his resignation or removal is announced by December 31, now prices that at 80.5%. Nvidia has not confirmed any of it. So what exactly are traders betting on, and how much money is behind it?
Polymarket’s own account flagged the jump as the news broke, when the year-end odds were still at 73%:
BREAKING: Jensen Huang departure odds soar after 5 former Nvidia employees allege he had a second extramarital affair, this time with a senior executive.
73% chance he's out by end of year.
🔗 polymarket.com/r/Jensen
What Did the Reports Say About Jensen Huang?
That Nvidia’s board is preparing to oust Huang, according to the Wall Street Journal, which cited people familiar with the matter late on Wednesday. The report followed new allegations of a second extramarital affair, this time with an Nvidia executive. A few hours later, a source told Reuters the board was meeting to decide whether to remove him.
It lands on top of an older story. Since late October, reports have said US officials believe Huang had a relationship with Alice Huang, a cloud company executive they suspect of working for Chinese intelligence, which we covered in our AI stocks piece last week. On November 8 the board opened an independent investigation and said it still had confidence in Huang.
Semafor added that some directors favor CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO, though the full board had not decided. Huang has run Nvidia since he co-founded it in 1993, and there is no named successor.
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How Polymarket Prices a Jensen Huang Exit
As a near-certainty by spring, and as better than a coin flip for today. The Polymarket event splits the question by date, and each contract resolves Yes if a resignation or removal is announced by then.
The whole event has traded $11.5 million. For context, the contract for an announcement by November 11 had $5.1 million riding on it and now sits at 0.15%, so the market expected the board to wait at least a day.
The chain traders are betting on runs like this:
- Board meets, Huang out = the biggest name in AI loses its only CEO a week before earnings.
- A week before earnings = Nvidia’s results on Tuesday, November 17 land with an interim boss or an open question.
- Either way = more selling in AI stocks, the trade crypto has followed all month.
One sceptic’s note: a prediction market is a crowd with money on it, not a leak from the boardroom. The odds can swing hard on one headline.
SIDE TRAIL: Shorting Chip Stocks Has Made This Hyperliquid Whale $25M
Nvidia Perps on Hyperliquid: Where Is NVDA Now?
Below the stock’s 52-week low, with dip buyers trying. The NVDA perp on trade.xyz, the venue for Hyperliquid stock perps (perpetual futures with no expiry), trades at $160.54 at the time of writing, down 7.6% from the close. Nasdaq’s after-hours market showed a similar drop of more than 8%.
The bigger change is the money in it. Open interest stands at about $554 million, up from roughly $91 million on November 7, and the perp traded $1.18 billion in 24 hours. Funding is slightly positive, so longs are paying shorts a small fee to keep betting on a bounce.
Some of them are betting big. Lookonchain spotted one whale going all-in on an NVDA long during the drop:
The whale who went heavily long on $NVDA and $SNDK has closed his $SNDK long and gone all-in on $NVDA!
He now holds a long on 190,952 $NVDA ($30.67M), with over $2.6M in unrealized losses.
x.com/lookonchain/st…
TRAIL MAP: Funding Rates and Open Interest: Reading the Leverage in the Market
The area to watch is $164.27, the Nvidia stock 52-week low on Nasdaq. Getting back above it at Thursday’s 14:30 UTC open (9:30 a.m. in New York) would make the overnight wick look like panic. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages both sit near $213, far overhead.
Bitcoin barely noticed. BTC trades at $73,485, just above its 200-day MA at $73,148. The NVDA perp lost 5.4% in a single hour overnight. Bitcoin’s move over the full 24 hours: minus 0.4%.
Teddy has been trading crypto since 2016. The focus is altcoins and EMA setups: finding coins sitting on key levels, waiting for support to hold or a range to be reclaimed, and trading the move from there. Bitcoin sets the tone, but the opportunities are usually in the alts.
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